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Chapter 11 Announced - Part 10 - Post Confirmation Hearing/Judges Ruling


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A friend contacted me privately, concerned I've not been posting. He knows I am on all the hearings and was checking in on me. Honestly, Eagle1993 does such an excellent job I had little to add. My at

Thanks for mentioning that.  Probably a good time for me to pop back up.  I just want to say thanks to everyone who participates on this and other forums (Fora?).  I take my role on the TCC seriously

I hope you find some peace.  For me, the start of the bankruptcy and having to address the abuse again was difficult. But, I went back to therapy and found some other people with similar experien

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7 minutes ago, Eagle1993 said:

Nothing.  

Nothing because we want to just move on and build back better or nothing because of something else?

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16 hours ago, Eagle1970 said:

Thoughts anyone?

My best guess analysis linked above. There was a data set after the last vote which included the alleged abuse (so a tier could be determined) and alleged location (so SOL's could be factored in). I'm confident that it's less than fully funded. 

The rough estimate I made was that it is in the neighborhood of 30% funded (as compared to liabilities) with no additional contributions. As @MYCVAStory noted in a response, there are known changes (my estimate: 10% to administer the fund) and suspected changes (how many people will follow through, fraud, etc.). Re: how many claims will be paid, this analysis estimated about 43,000. 

We'll see but I think for people not going through the alternate review, somewhere in the 15-20% range if the current plan is approved. That is before any fees for representation. 

Has anyone else made an estimate? 

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2 hours ago, Tron said:

Nothing because we want to just move on and build back better or nothing because of something else?

Primarily because everyone will have moved on.  During the trial, there were expert witnesses who indicated there could be a large number of false claims.  There are also those who indicated that there are others who didn't file claims.

BSA will want to move on.  I don't think it would help for them to argue, 10-15-20 years from now that ... hey, we had a less rapes than reported. 

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3 hours ago, clbkbx said:

My best guess analysis linked above. There was a data set after the last vote which included the alleged abuse (so a tier could be determined) and alleged location (so SOL's could be factored in). I'm confident that it's less than fully funded. 

 

Thanks.  I know there are a lot of variables.  I was thinking 10% or so.  Not really sure why they used such high base amounts, given that probability.  Meanwhile, Nassar's victims want another few million more each, from taxpayers.

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2 hours ago, PaleRider said:

I just got off the phone with my lawyer and he said he caught wind that the judge will not be making a decision untill the end of June.

I'm sure it's not the case here, but legal cases have never moved very fast in the Summer, for me.  Thanks for the update.  As with a few others here, I am pro se, so have nobody to call.

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18 hours ago, Eagle1970 said:

I'm sure it's not the case here, but legal cases have never moved very fast in the Summer, for me.  Thanks for the update.  As with a few others here, I am pro se, so have nobody to call.

I can attest to that, I am in family court right now and the Judge just punted to November to avoid gumming up the summer. 

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21 hours ago, PaleRider said:

he said he caught wind that the judge will not be making a decision untill the end of June.

Ack x ack. Was there any hint going to from whence cometh this foul smelling breeze? 

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3 minutes ago, ThenNow said:

Ack x ack. Any hint at from whence cometh this foul smelling breeze? 

No sir.I didn't ask and he didn't tell.Sorry

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1 hour ago, ThenNow said:

Ack x ack. Was there any hint going to from whence cometh this foul smelling breeze? 

I do wonder given the timing if we are not looking at an approval.  The judge said she would be back with a ruling soon (at the close of the hearing) AND mentioned multiple times she knew timing was critical. 

I would have thought if it was a straight plan approval we would have heard by now.  Yes, she has to work on the wording of her ruling/order, but I can't imagine that taking months.  There is a chance ... but each day that passes makes me think a straight plan approval is not in the cards.

I also expect a full out rejection of the plan is also not likely.  Again, if she saw this plan as severely flawed she would have ruled quickly and told the sides to try again.

I'm leaning to a plan rejection (as I don't think she can change the plan) but with a very carefully worded ruling that leaves the door open to a relatively quick fix.  She may be very specific on the sections she agrees with and the area(s) she cannot approve and why.  This could lay the groundwork for all sides to quickly address those issues in the plan and get to a plan approval.  That could be why it is taking months (as she wants to be very careful on how she words the likely rejection).

I don't see this as her taking a summer break.  She kept court going for late nights and long days during the hearing to keep the plan on track.  I checked her calendar and is was pretty clear ... so I expect she is putting is some long hours on this ruling.

Just a guess ... but if the headline is "Judge rejects BSA bankruptcy plan" I wouldn't immediately panic and think all is lost.  It could mean she just laid out a path to a plan modification that will win at district and appeals.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Eagle1993 said:

I'm leaning to a plan rejection (as I don't think she can change the plan) but with a very carefully worded ruling that leaves the door open to a relatively quick fix.  She may be very specific on the sections she agrees with and the area(s) she cannot approve and why.  This could lay the groundwork for all sides to quickly address those issues in the plan and get to a plan approval.  That could be why it is taking months (as she wants to be very careful on how she words the likely rejection).

This is what I hear. Carve outs, do overs, "this issue is a no-go" and the like. If she is not essentially structuring and teeing up the do overs, this will be a mess me thinks. 

1 hour ago, Eagle1993 said:

I don't see this as her taking a summer break.  She kept court going for late nights and long days during the hearing to keep the plan on track.  I checked her calendar and is was pretty clear ... so I expect she is putting is some long hours on this ruling.

Yeah. Zero percent chance she's at the shore. This is too big, too time sensitive, too high profile, too costly to all concerned, and too complex to do anything other than slog through it. I wonder, does a judge get access to consultants, other than clerks? 

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Oops. Sloppy poster today.
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If we think she is massaging the ruling I would go with she is massaging it to make it bullet proof for an approval. Normally when judges reject stuff they stay as vague as possible because they want to see what is brought back to the table.

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30 minutes ago, Tron said:

If we think she is massaging the ruling I would go with she is massaging it to make it bullet proof for an approval. Normally when judges reject stuff they stay as vague as possible because they want to see what is brought back to the table.

Is that in bankruptcy court? From what I've learned and observed being present and accounted for at nearly all of the hearings, it's quite a different animal.

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