clbkbx

Agreed. The FB groups are wild.

Thanks @BadChannel70. June 1 update: average $566,526 per TDP claim. [This has gone up every month, contra to what I thought.] For the TDP, 53% claims determined and 29% paid (17,009 paid) For the IRO, 26% claims determined and 9% paid (18 paid) It looks like the Expedited Distribution is just about finished (less than a percent undetermined, 92% paid). This would represent about $20MM for 6,000 survivors. Less than 1% of 2.4B, for 10% of claims. If the Trust were to stop here, just based on claims paid amounts (not determined), they would need just over $9.5B, with 35% of the claims paid. Without factoring in non-Matrix IRO payments, the Trust needs about $33B to be fully funded at these averages. The Trust of course, having determined 58% of the claims, could probably give a better estimate.

There hasn’t been a June 1 update yet. Much later this month than when it was posted for previous months. Edited to fix a typo.

Hi @ThenNow, thank you for sharing your experience. I went through the IRO and just received a settlement recommendation. Your "grateful" post struck me. One aspect of the IRO that was difficult is that there were adversarial parties involved. So while no one didn't believe me, there was a lot of crap thrown at the wall to try to minimize BSA's exposure: look he's a functioning adult, no one ever told the BSA he was being abused, if there is any settlement recommendation it should be small and wholly attributable to the abuser, etc. They twisted the words in the reports by my therapist, they suggested my college-age struggles were because of my then girlfriend and they had rebuttal witnesses to disparage the experts' findings on my behalf. All that said, to say: the Neutral wrote a thoughtful response that I'm grateful for. The settlement is what it is (and underfunded) but the parts I've read several times are about putting *everything* in context. I wanted to do the IRO mainly to be able to tell my story, to put it all out there and have it be judged. Validated, as you suggested. And now I'm done... there's not much more I can affect or prepare for. That's been the best part of it so far. To everyone still going through the process, all the best.

May 1 update: average $557,053 per TDP claim. For the TDP, 47% claims determined and 25% paid (14,285 paid, 58,103 claims) For the IRO, 20% claims determined and 6% paid (14 paid, 217 claims) If the Trust were to stop here, just based on claims paid amounts (not determined), they would need just shy of $8B. I think that is getting near the max amount if all insurance companies settle. The average claim has increased each month (from last month, an increase of 4.2%, so above the COLA which I don't believe was applied the entire month). The COLA incurred to date (based on paid claims) is $190MM, but likely none of that will be realized in any way, it's just going through the motions.

Just passed the five-months-from-oral-arguments that the Trustee’s indicated was the average time for a ruling from the Sixth Circuit. https://scoutingsettlementtrust.my.salesforce.com/sfc/p/#Dp0000016pkB/a/Uu000002c92j/T9hQYKF8KkVWWap2jPhb24vEUq0JduWSxLZZcZOAydk

For all reading, including you, @skeptic, you can work through the suffering and trauma! It is difficult, but let that be a goal for all of us. Please do not let statements like this knock you off your path to a better life. Do money settlements help? Without introducing everyone here to a different forum, there are definitely people that have said it does. And who knew that best and for decades? BSA. I've considered what you've said before about BSA having similar or better controls in place than other entities. They knew it was continuing to happen, so, to me, the worst inclination is letting it happen to protect an institution. When my abuser was arrested, there were a few articles in the local paper quoting Scout exec's saying things like "there are controls in place," "we are vigilant," "this is extremely rare," etc. This was two years after a different SM was arrested for CSA in the same council. The human animal really does fail badly at times.

In addition, the Trustee has sued insurance companies that have not settled. You can see at the link below that there are two parts. https://scoutingsettlementtrust.my.salesforce.com/sfc/p/#Dp0000016pkB/a/Uu000002c92j/T9hQYKF8KkVWWap2jPhb24vEUq0JduWSxLZZcZOAydk My recollection is that one of the town halls indicated the value was up to $4B.

April 1 update: average $534,599 per TDP claim. For the Expedited Distribution, 99% claims determined and 92% paid (6,036 claims) For the TDP, 39% claims determined and 19% paid (58,088 claims) For the IRO, 17% claims determined and 5% paid (230 claims... not all of which are finalized like the ED and TDP) If the Trust were to stop here, just based on claims paid amounts (not determined)... they would need just shy of $6B.

I think that's partially due to the Trust itself. The guesstimates also rarely note how the IRO is funded wrt to these potential future amounts... and how that affects the matrix amount. (I made this mistake in a post, too, and had to go back and look at it.) Sorry to read about your change in optimism but definitely understand it.

March 1 update: average $516,443 per claim. If that average holds (which it likely won't), the Trust would need a little over $30B... but what's $2B more than the last calculation? There was a bankruptcy data set with 43k entries that I used to estimate that the average would be about $240,000 if the matrix base amount was used. That would need a Trust of about $14B (or the other way, would fund about 20%). It could still be that high value claims are being processed faster but also that the upward scaling factors are outweighing the downward scaling ones.

February 1 update: $498,645 per claim for 58,026 claims.

I am certain they did and hard to square with the Trustee’s statements about transparency. If we had the same information they do (on a confidential basis same as was given in the bankruptcy), we could get a maximum, minimum and likely average very quickly. I think it was before the final vote that we could look at the numbers and already know that it was less than 50% funded with very conservative estimates. A major mis-step (or, conspiracy theory: purposeful approach) was that the Boy Scouts presented an expert who said it would be 100% funded and there was no evidence rebutting that, so in the certification the Judge said I’m relying on the only evidence that was presented. I’m not sure what will happen, but agree that an acceptable outcome to me is getting real money paid out quickly.

Too soon to estimate what the claims values will be vs how the Trust is funded? Maybe (and I listed some possible reasons why below) but as of January 1, 90% of the expedited distributions have been paid (at full value) and 10% of the matrix claims have been paid (at 1.5% value). Like the expedited distributions, the IRO is somewhat less important to the matrix but 2% of claims have been paid (also at 1.5% value). Current average expedited per claim: $3,284 * 6,027 claims = about $20MM Current average matrix per claim: $484,254 * 57,953 claims = a little over $28B Calculated as: ($42,268,754 paid out minus $698,000 advanced payments) divided by 5,723 disbursements = $7,264 per claim on a 1.5% payment (or a full share of $484,254). Same for the IRO below but no advanced payment adjustment. Current average IRO per claim: $900,000 * 275 total claims = about $250MM. Add it all up and it's... a little over $28B. The last estimate I saw was the the Trust had about $2.5B but let's say the Trustee gets really good returns on everything to make the math easy with $2.8B and it's looking like it's 10% funded. Maybe the Trustee also settles with a bunch of insurers adding another $2.8B to the Matrix and then it would be about 20% funded. Btw, disallowed claims are running less than 1% at this point. _________ One of the bankruptcy documents had a breakdown of votes, class and open/grey/closed designations. Assuming the matrix base amount for each class, the average claim based on that mix would have been $218,143 or half of the current average. Here some reasons why the current average might be higher than the final: claimants with a higher claim class were more likely to file timely claimants with a higher expected claim due to scaling factors were more likely to file timely law firms prioritized higher expected claims first in order to speed up payments they would receive claimants with the most documentation (and so maybe the more egregious cases) are more easily processed The Trust is finding more evidence of upward scaling factors than downward The percentage of disallowed claims will increase as the Trust asks for more information and it takes longer for these types of claims to be evaluated Anything else I'm missing? If the claims even out more to base levels with a similar mix as was in the bankruptcy document, the Trust would be 20-40% funded. Lastly, the trust noted that 25% of matrix claims were determined as of January 23rd. They also noted that $70MM has been paid to approximately 12,300 survivors (across all classes). Here's a back of the envelope estimate: assuming the great majority of those in January were matrix claims, since the last update 9.9MM was paid to about 1,150 claimants at 1.5%... for an average claim amount of $573,913 at about 12% of matrix claims processed. It seems at least for the next update, there won't be much of a downward change in the average claim amount. Incorporating this into the overall averages: $499,256 per claim for 57,953 claims = a little less than $29B.

Duh... that is what I meant to write. I was trying to make the point that it would typically be better for folks to have their lawyers do as much as possible from a cost perspective.