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qwazse

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Everything posted by qwazse

  1. @David CO's is the way that I apply it. And, it's what we expect from our camp aquatics directors. There is simply way too much on the line. If you haven't seen the scout do it, he hasn't done it. This pandemic makes it worse. A lot of youth are not getting normal amounts of time in the water. A piece of paper does not tell if a scout has gotten out of shape -- physically or mentally. It happens all the time. There was one year where I slipped on my time for my sprints. I wouldn't let me guard an aquatics area until I got back into condition. But, if a scout is "all that" it takes only a couple of hours at the pool for him/her to show you that he/she is "all that."
  2. Youth who are only ever cub scouts are never in the denominator. The denominator is always only youth who have been registered in a program where they could earn Eagle. There’s always a “better number”. My preferred calculation is the total number of scouts who ever earned Eagle, divided by the total number of youth who were Boy Scouts, Varsity Scouts, Male Venturers, or (now) Scouts BSA. I did that once a while back and came up with a figure of about 3%. My main knock on troops with an “Eagle or Bust” mentality is that it is a discouragement to boys who only want to be 1st Class scouts.
  3. The 6% is a simple #Eagles in a year divided by #Scouts and Venturers<18. (Click here for gory details.) It does not include cubs, but it would include crossovers. Our troop has gone through "boom" and "bust" stages. Some years 1/3 of the scouts earn it, other years maybe 1/30. Both of my sons' dens nearly entirely crossed over. I think over half of Son #1's den earned it, while Son #2 was the only one from his den who did.
  4. @SSScout 40 million US deaths would be unlikely even in the worst case scenario. There's no need for hyperbole. A single-cause mortality of 4 in 10K is a bad year on the epidemiologist's yardstick. Someone asked me why we would treat a rate of .0005 as if it were Ebola. So, I looked it up. Over two years, Sierra Leone saw 3956 Ebola deaths in a population of 7.1 million ... 5.57 in 10K or .000557. Some of our states are wishing they only had Ebola-like mortality.
  5. Just heard good news from my pandemic guy that although one or two folks have tested positive after the 1st dose, he hasn’t seen any positive tests from 2nd dose recipients at our institution. This would be priority cases ... senior care centers and the nurses, administrators, and service staff who work there. These folks are being screened regularly. This is info beyond the clinical trial results, which could not test the “cluster efficacy” of a vaccine. If he gets it into open access, I’ll share. Generally, after roll-out, vaccine efficacy can vary wildly from community to community. So, if multiple centers show similar results it will give a sense of the minimal percentage of vaccinated people needed to halt virus transmission in a cluster.
  6. As someone whose livelihood depended on child participants in research studies, I’d say yes if the scout talks to a group about his/her experience. The goal here is to get scouts to try out some MBs and they might not have considered and come up with innovative ways of serving.
  7. None have asked me for counselors for these MBs. But if those in our vicinity are unavailable, I’ll keep this in mind.
  8. So, we are certain about the six month mark because that’s how long most everyone in the trials had to be before the FDA would offer emergency authorization. For the few folks who had been in each trial for more than six months, everyone was still testing positive at the same rate, but the placebo group was still coming down with moderate or severe COVID-19 symptoms many times more frequently than the vaccinated group. We will know in May if that holds true for everyone who completes the trial. Based on the marginal rates so far, my money is on the vaccine. But, as a statistician over the years, I’ve seen a few pre-hatched eggs over-counted. Natural immunity is a crap shoot. One would think that there ain’t nothing like the real thing, but viruses call B.S. on that line of reasoning. A body may commit to memory the antibodies it needs to produce, or not. Although natural selection favors the generation of antibodies that will consistently beat any virus and his cousin, the ones an immune system decides to put in circulation may be geared toward a part of the virus that varies easily. Worse, a compromised immune system will still replicate virus and over time select copies that are increasingly antibody resistant. So, like the folks in the clinical trials, we won’t know the true resilience of COVID survivors until those under study have been a year post recovery. Theoretically, aiming each of several vaccines at narrowly selected targets should out-perform natural immunity for a significant time. But, we just have to let the horses round the back stretch to be sure.
  9. Here's the good news about efficacy against emerging variants: the textbook problem of designing the right mRNA sequence is partly based on the sections of viral DNA (or RNA, if we're talking retro-virus) that have been varying the least. Basically, the genes that had not been varying much are likely to be the ones that the virus can't afford to change, so new variants are likely to have targets that are still identifiable by a prepared immune system. That's the textbook theory, at least. In most ways, Cov-Sars-2 is textbook; but in others, the jury is still out. There hasn't really been any bad news about duration of immunity. It's just a matter of waiting out the trials to get an idea of how long the high level of efficiency lasts. The general thinking is that the public will be okay with an annual vaccine, especially if it's part of a flu shot. If they need something more frequently than that, we won't get the compliance we need to lower the virus reproduction number. Meanwhile the more traditional vaccines seem to be doing a decent enough job and are easy to deliver. Here at Pitt, a patch (micro-needle array) delivery system is about to go to trial. Something with modest efficiency but no needles and no need for refrigeration could be a game changer for a lot of diseases.
  10. http://usscouts.org/mb/history.asp http://www.boyscoutimages.com/item/Master10/Master-at-Arms-1909-10 https://soldiersystems.net/2016/10/30/updated-discontinued-bsa-merit-badges-master-at-arms/ Interestingly, one of our crew's more interesting venturing meetings was a night of self-defense instruction. One of our dads founded our university's judo club, which years later fielded a lady who qualified for the US Olympic team.
  11. The bureaucratic hurdles are the greatest. But, the truth is, although we have promising initial results from the trial participants who've been followed the longest, there's no knowledge of how long the immunity lasts. That's why the trials are ongoing and FDA approval is still a ways off.
  12. Well, dose #2 floored me for a day so far. I was warned to be on the lookout for worse. That mRNA makes for one mean sparring partner. I've been explaining the process to scouts as I've gone through it. I want them to know what it's like, but we have a wide range of boys and some are more science-oriented than others. The two take-home lessons: Rolling out vaccines in less than two years is the equivalent of landing a man on the moon ... Titan, that is ... the one around Saturn. One day, their kids will have a math or biology assignment where they sift through the genetic codes of 8 samples of virus, find the weak link, and write out the mRNA formula needed to mount an attack. Yes, the needle is the least of the hassle. We're basically asking millions to endure a day or two of discomfort -- some will hazard allergic reaction -- so that millions more will stay out of the hospital and hundreds of thousands more live another day. How are you talking to your scouts about vaccinations?
  13. The closest I got was telling a venturer whose troop BoR turned him down that he was welcome to make rank through my crew, but I would demand flawless execution as usual. He decided that he would do what he needed to be approved by the troop. Did the board do it's due diligence to provide the scout, in writing, the things he/she must do? That's really the first step. Are you coming at this from a district position, or as the scout's unit leader?
  14. @The Latin Scot, I feel your pain, but I can't help laughing. At it's corps, compared to 40 years ago: We now have units with 2-4 times the number of adult leaders. We have districts the size of councils. We have councils the size of areas. Thus the awards to be given have far outstripped the number of entities awarding them. I think the spirit for a district leader recognition event is in the right place, but it should: Offer the intimacy (fellowship) that a council can't possibly offer. Be as positive toward that scouters who don't attend as those that do. Recognize regional divisions that may require nuance -- e.g., hold it in a different town each year, one year let the 1st language be Spanish, another year have youth put on a skit about their beloved SM, etc ...
  15. Instant access to every small town news item tough on kids. Little Johnny crosses over, Mom or Dad pulls up this article and tells him, "Unlike Adam, you're going to have 80 MBs by the end of next year!" It leaves us scouters in a bind. We want to encourage our youth to go hard after their goals. But, we want parents to know that we don't measure "wins" on sashes. We work for smiles. And to that end, we want our scouts to develop unique gifts and talents. Sometimes that comes through a boatload of MBs, but sometimes it comes through digging in to one or two skills. Honestly, we esteem the 14 year old who finally earns 1st class as highly as the the 12 year old who earns eagle and 10 insta-palms. I had this discussion in an outside-of-scouting (yes it happens) meeting. A friend wants to offer "basic training" on a monthly basis to as many as possible, while I am after "deep learning" for the few willing to commit once weekly over a number of years. So, we are asking ourselves: how we pull together to support both?
  16. A picnic? With steaks? Dutch oven pot roast? Firstly “in which all would want to attend” is an absurd goal. Scouters don’t get involved in scouting for attaboys. We are there because we see kids having fun and learning to do things for themselves ... things that may eventually forestall death. We work for smiles. So, it’s by sheer luck that any of us would block out a day away from that sheer adventure for a sit-down dinner. We had to trick my SM into attending his own Silver Beaver awarding. They has a special guest who happened to be visiting a local college as the keynote speaker. Then they told my SM that they would like his SPL (me) to lead the opening. He always would prep us for these sorts of public appearances, and come along as “moral support.” The CC then gave me the “real” script that included introducing my SM and the person who would award his bling. So, guest speaker, involve scouts, stop worrying about the scouters who miss it. Have fun.
  17. Welcome. I just came in from a friend’s birthday party. Wired for them, maybe. Just another morning around a campfire for me,
  18. There is no standard-issue shirt/trousers combo in GS/USA. This looks close to a Sea Scout uniform, but I think it's a Vietnamese girl scout uniform. They are members of WOSM. Here's a link to what I think is the troop's page https://chilang2279.org/ I think a scouter posted here before regarding this unit, or one very much like it. If I find that, I'll link them in.
  19. Thanks for clipping the full text of the article. It's interesting to note that the reporters do not identify external pressures, such as NOW of NYC.
  20. @Melgamatic, thanks for taking on a thankless job. More importantly, thanks for explaining "real world" implications for the changes. It's very helpful to have an explanation when scouters ask. I personally believe that a scout's proposal/report should sit apart from the workbook. (I've promoted plain-old-ASCII in other threads.) But, as long as we're in a world where form exceeds substance, adding pages will do.
  21. Great announcement. Also fits in "Scouting Around the World."
  22. It was an issue of, "What can we use by way of marketing doublespeak to avoid speaking plainly?" The plain-spoken answer would have been, "We now have girls and their parents by the thousands begging us to work our program. Either start insisting that a quality GS/USA troop inculcate a vision of the pinnacle scouting experience of hiking and camping independently with one's mates or we will have no choice but to step in and fill that void. Oh, and by the way, how would you all like to join us hosting World Scout Jamboree? Your cookie sales could launch through the roof!" But, we all were subject to decades of double-speak, and there were precious few execs who would get anywhere by speaking plainly. (Consider the convoluted excuses made for female venturers being kept from O/A or Eagle Scout or recognition by NESA for earning Silver.)
  23. This is pretty old news. As in 60 years old. West had a chip on his shoulder over Gordon Low’s refusal the rebrand as Girl Guides. That bitter root has only grown fat. There’s no secret about executive animus between the two organizations. Many boots-on-the-ground work around executives who try to keep members of the two organizations from any collaboration.
  24. It's always been a mix. There are precious few people who hike and camp as often as the average SM. My SM was a church organist, so he counseled me for Music. (The downside: we always returned to the scout-house by 8:30 AM Sunday.) I earned 1st Aid from a neighboring SM who was also an EMT. Dad was happy to drive me and a buddy through the countryside to his house -- which was down the street from the least expensive barber in the county. A couple of my other counselors had responsibilities as cub leaders, etc ... so being "already bothered" wasn't an issue. Adults had room for "one more boy." The crux of the problem is the modern paperwork burden. One hour a week is fine when directly working with a couple of scouts. That's 12 hours a month. But when you pile on an hour of training and an hour paper chase on average every year, and reduce hours of availability because you need to align schedules to fulfill youth protection -- it deprives volunteers of the coveted time mentoring a youth. So instead of 12 youth helped, its 8-10. On the district side, the commissioner goes from collecting a handshake and contact info to making sure a half dozen t-s are crossed and i-s dotted. So, instead of the commish and his/her buddies going around neighborhoods shaking hands with dozens of prospective adults every month, they are probably pushing paperwork for a fraction of the people who they would have on-boarded for the same effort in the past. So, instead of recruitment being a fun exercise of growing a fellowship of caring adults -- it has become an administrative hot-potato.
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