Governor Cuomo's comments

[walk in the woods]

4 hours ago, qwazse said:

Okay social distance warriors ... there's wisdom and there's zealotry.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html

[Sentinel947]

1 hour ago, walk in the woods said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html

People would never lie to their doctors/health providers about their compliance with medical advice/the law! Would they? 😄

[yknot]

1 minute ago, Sentinel947 said:

People would never lie to their doctors/health providers about their compliance with medical advice/the law! Would they? 😄

There are also a lot of variables involved in peoples' living conditions. Staying at home in an urban neighborhood in NYC is not the same as staying at home in the suburbs.

 

[MattR]

 

14 hours ago, walk in the woods said:

66%?  I suppose it's possible to believe 66% of the residents of NYC are liars is an explanation.  Another is that the stay at home orders are a farce.

There are all sorts of problems with this 66% number.

First of all, it does not include all those that have the virus, which we only have a vague idea what the number is, and the number of admitted vs having the virus. So that 66% could be closer to 1% of those that have the virus.

But more importantly, this has nothing to do with the original topic and this thread is not in issues and topics. So let's get back on topic.

 

 

[HashTagScouts]

16 hours ago, walk in the woods said:

66%?  I suppose it's possible to believe 66% of the residents of NYC are liars is an explanation.  Another is that the stay at home orders are a farce.

As the article says, "mostly stayed at home". Take aside the nursing home folks, the imprisoned folks, and what you have left are the rest of us- those who are making weekly trips to the grocery store or the hardware store.  Again, the point of the stay-at-home was not that we wouldn't see a spread it was that we wouldn't see a massive swell that would overwhelm the health system.  Now, we should be slowly taking steps to begin to resume some activities.  Be smart, and not try and go 100 mph in a week.

[Sentinel947]

23 hours ago, walk in the woods said:

66%?  I suppose it's possible to believe 66% of the residents of NYC are liars is an explanation.  Another is that the stay at home orders are a farce.

I don't believe that 66% are intentionally lying. People's reporting of their own events are notoriously unreliable in a medical setting... "How'd you get this injury?" "How many alcoholic beverages do you drink in a typical week?" "Do you have thoughts about self-harm?"

Much depends how the question is asked. "Have you been following the stay at home order?" Answer "Yes.". Reality: They have to go to the grocery store, they go outside for exercise and pass their neighbors doing the same. They visit with family members they do not live with, they visit with neighbors they don't live with... they go to public parks. (Especially in NYC.) Do all members of the household follow the stay at home order? What kind of activities outside the home do they get involved in? I see a lot of kids outside at the basketball court near me, while it's possible they are 10 siblings, I find that unlikely. Many people mean to be following the stay at home orders, but all the exceptions are opportunities to be infected or spread the infection. Now with states reopening businesses, the orders are even more confusing to follow. In my state, next week outdoor spaces for restaurants can reopen. Does the Governor want me to stay at my house or patronize these reopening restaurants? 

@yknot's point is well put. There is a variability to living conditions in various areas that makes following a stay at home order difficult. As a suburbanite, I have storage space for food, and a car to transport it that many in NYC may not have. I also don't have a spouse or kids, making my trips to the grocery store less frequent. 

If we're being totally honest with ourselves, very few people are completely and totally following the stay at home orders in their entirety. I know I've broken the stay at home order a few times. Most of it was for selfish social reasons. I did the best I could to minimize risk to myself and others, and I've won the gamble. Other people have not won their own gambles. Thankfully, nobody I know has been diagnosed or hospitalized. 

Stay at home orders are an attempt to deal with what could be an overwhelming health crisis. Only time will tell if it was an overreaction. There will be some case studies to look at how countries have handled this: Sweden vs their neighbors, Taiwan, Korea, China, Italy. At least in my state, the stay at home order has worked, even with mixed compliance. It bought the hospitals the time they needed to get their supplies in place. It gave cities in my state time to plan and create additional care facilities. Hopefully by the end of the month we'll have a decent amount of tests here. By the end of June, we'll know more if the re-openings are premature, or if the lock downs were unnecessary. 

Edited May 10, 2020 by Sentinel947

[qwazse]

11 hours ago, Sentinel947 said:

... There will be some case studies to look at how countries have handled this: Sweden vs their neighbors, Taiwan, Korea, China, Italy. ...

Sweden's mortality rate is still climbing -- and that includes some pediatric deaths . Ranking higher than the US is sometimes a bad thing.  S Korea just had a fresh outbreak in nightclub attendees.

The US strategy has been and continues to be a middle ground between two extremes.

Our hospitals are getting back to treating non-COVID patients. They aren't elective procedures any more, they are scheduled essential procedures.