Significant Cultural Changes are Coming Soon

[ParkMan 1293]

15 minutes ago, PACAN said:

Cynic....not suggesting organizations don't have fixed costs or staff should work for free.   

Companies need to review their fixed costs as well especially when they lose 35% of their customers.   Downsize their footprint of office space for example.  A solid business case analysis is certainly  appropriate which should include all the resources properties, reserve requirements etc.    you are not going back to the funding levels of even three years ago and if you try and spend your way out, there will be for sale or auction signs at your camps.

It's probably worth noting that program fees are a proportionally smaller part of council budgets.  If, for example, you have a council with 10,000 scouts and each is charged $50.  That nets a council about $500,000.  A council of 10,000 scouts is probably carrying a budget in the 3-4 million dollar range. 

When you start looking at council spending, you see things like:

• direct event expenses
• staff
  • administrative staff (SE, treasurer, registrar, office staff)
  • marketing staff
  • fundraising staff
  • field support staff (DEs)
  • camp staff
• camp facility expenses
• office space
• fixed overhead (electricity, heat, copy paper)

When membership numbers shrink, I think councils have to start looking at how they do things.  Some stuff you cannot get rid of - i.e. you have to pay for electricity.  Some stuff you can.  Some stuff is strategic (camp expenses) whereas some stuff might not be.

[ProScouter06 34]

57 minutes ago, yknot said:

That's today, or at least this December, but next year or the year after might be different.

Cubs have no commitment to a larger scouting goal that would motivate them to stay involved.  Few Tiger scouts or their parents are thinking I have to keep my kid active in Cubs so that he can make AOL. The higher retention at Troop levels is like due to scouts and their families who are a couple of years in and are focused on making Eagle. That same motivation won't exist a year or two as these scouts Eagle out. My point is that the lower attrition rate isn't a function of the Troop program -- it's likely attributable to Eagle. We have a number of scouts who have moved up their Eagle timetables to be finished as soon as possible. So while Troop numbers have a minimal decline this year, next year won't be the same story.  
 

This is a good point. Not to mention, if you're in a Troop, as a scout, and as parents, there is much higher buy-in to the program to be able to suffer through virtual programming as so many have been forced in to. Cub Scouts on the other hand requires social interaction. Not to say Scouts, BSA does not, however, those kids have adjusted for lack of a better word to the vitural world. There is no doubt that this past fall would result in a massive membership loss in Cub Scouting, and with recruiting. It's a tragedy that will be felt for the next few years. 

Since I know the Scouting world, I will be joining this flal with my son as a Lion. Ideally we are back to gateherings by then. If not, it will be an uphill battle convincing parents to pay for and participate in an online program.

[gpurlee 247]

EagleDad - in response to your question:

In our large midwestern council, it appears that we are looking at a potential 70% to 80% Cub membership loss. We are right in the middle of re-chartering and will not know for certain perhaps for another month.  Several of our units are late in submitting their renewals. This number seems to be consistent from what reports are coming out of adjacent councils.

A lot of our cub packs have been decimated by the pandemic. While virtual meetings seem to work at least somewhat well for the older youth,  it has not done nearly as well for Cub age youth. In addition, in our typical recruitment years, we register between 4,000 and 5,000 youth. This year, it was less than 10% of that number. Also it appears that a number of our packs simply may not re-charter. Some of our 30 to 40 member packs are registering five or fewer youth (which requires a waiver). 

I sincerely hope that these projections are inaccurate. If not, we are looking at the worst single year membership loss in the history of our council.

[Eagledad 2779]

5 minutes ago, gpurlee said:

EagleDad - in response to your question:

In our large midwestern council, it appears that we are looking at a potential 70% to 80% Cub membership loss. We are right in the middle of re-chartering and will not know for certain perhaps for another month.  Several of our units are late in submitting their renewals. This number seems to be consistent from what reports are coming out of adjacent councils.

A lot of our cub packs have been decimated by the pandemic. While virtual meetings seem to work at least somewhat well for the older youth,  it has not done nearly as well for Cub age youth. In addition, in our typical recruitment years, we register between 4,000 and 5,000 youth. This year, it was less than 10% of that number. Also it appears that a number of our packs simply may not re-charter. Some of our 30 to 40 member packs are registering five or fewer youth (which requires a waiver). 

I sincerely hope that these projections are inaccurate. If not, we are looking at the worst single year membership loss in the history of our council.

Ignoring new scout recruiting for the moment, why are cub families not renewing while the troop families are?

Barry

[CynicalScouter 1434]

1 minute ago, Eagledad said:

Ignoring new scout recruiting for the moment, why are cub families not renewing while the troop families are?

In my area the answer is Zoom burn out and an inability to do ANYTHING outdoors plus a critical mass loss. That and "wait and see" .

1) Zoom burn out. Scouts, BSA are willing to do things and focus on zoom for 45-60 minutes. The cubs? No way. Plus if they've already been zooming all day long they can't focus.

2) Inability to do anything. COs are banning them from the building in my area. The cubs won't keep the masks on or stay socially distant. And with the change in daylight savings, night comes very early. A few dens tried shifting to Saturday mornings but that's been of only certain help. Meanwhile, my Scouts, BSA troop has had two successful campouts and has done hikes and such.

3) Critical mass loss: once one parent drops it seems to domino ESPECIALLY den leaders. I was at RT last month and a Cubmaster from the largest pack in the district noted this. 8 scout Webelos 1 den. Lead parent dropped and the backup simply never did anything virtual or otherwise and had no desire to do so. 8 families, and not a single one would step up and 4 scouts were likely not going to recharter.

This is Baby Sitters of America syndrome: Scouts is there to dump the kids off at once a week for 1.5 hours.

4) "Wait and see". I don't know why, but for Cubs this seems much more likely. We had 2 scouts drop out in our Troop and they just flat out dropped. But at the Pack I've heard much more often "We'll come back next year." We'll see if that's true or not, but I think the Cub drops are much more temporary. Of course the problem is dropping below the 5-scout minimum causes problems for the pack.

 

[fred8033 1593]

35 minutes ago, Eagledad said:

Ignoring new scout recruiting for the moment, why are cub families not renewing while the troop families are?

Barry

Nature of the program. 

• Boy Scout families have dived in and need to keep swimming.  Cub Scout families are still testing the water to see if scouting is right for their kid.  High commitment versus little commitment. 
• Age of the scouts.  Older scouts take their friendship relationships much more seriously.  And want those to keep going.  
• Amount of work.  Cub Scouts is A LOT OF WORK for the parents.  Boy Scouts is much less work and more enjoyable.
• Boy Scouts is a journey with a goal many scouts want to achieve.  Cub Scouts has arrow of light that can be earned even if you join in the last 9/12 months.  People put Eagle on resume, but not arrow of light.  ... imho ... arrow of light is a reflection on parent and den.  Less on the kid.

Families can drop cubs right now with little loss.   Dropping from Boy Scouts has much bigger implications.  Friendships.  Ranks.  Activities.  

IMHO, kids lose little by missing the youngest scouting years.  Definitely, the K, 1st and 2nd grade scouting years.  If I could do it over again, I'd start my boys at Webelos year.  Maybe bear.   

There could be some recovery here as after the pandemic, families may be looking for ways to get their kids out and doing things.   And rebuilding friendships.

 

Edited December 16, 2020 by fred8033

[Eagledad 2779]

6 minutes ago, fred8033 said:

Nature of the program.  Cub Parents are always working hard to get cub scouts to work.  And cub scouts benefit is face-to-face.  I see little ... but some ... in a virtual program.   Once kids are in Boy Scouts, they socialize more independently and develop real friendships that they can sustain themselves.

IMHO, kids lose little by missing the K, 1st and 2nd grade scouting years.  If I could do it over again, I'd start my boys at Webelos year.   

There could be some recovery here as after the pandemic, families may be looking for ways to get their kids out and doing things.   And rebuilding friendships.

 

We have always had to deal with nature of the program drop outs. I've never been able to add up specific numbers because National doesn't give them that accurately, but my gross number guess is that around 70% of  Tigers drop out before reaching the troop age.

If the main cause of dropping is the pandemic, then that is theoretically temporary. If on the other hand the problem is all the other changes in the last few years, then National has to re-image the cub program.

This could be an opportunity to market Cubs as a great program to get kids back in the mix, or as you said, rebuilding friendships. I know parents today are very concerned about their kids isolation.

Barry

 

[ParkMan 1293]

We've noticed in Cub recruiting that a certain segment of the population - when they become aware of Scouting, it likely to check it out.  I suspect that we'll see a robust membership year next year because those kids that were predisposed to it this year will simply wait it out and try next year.

I would not worry too much about the doom and gloom right now.  Of course kids are not participating and joining when the units are not able to do traditional Scouting

[fred8033 1593]

20 minutes ago, Eagledad said:

We have always had to deal with nature of the program drop outs. I've never been able to add up specific numbers because National doesn't give them that accurately, but my gross number guess is that around 70% of  Tigers drop out before reaching the troop age.

If the main cause of dropping is the pandemic, then that is theoretically temporary. If on the other hand the problem is all the other changes in the last few years, then National has to re-image the cub program.

"other changes" ...  I see little impact by membership policy changes, except that it helped cub scout recruitment. 

The biggest change I've seen is making Tiger a formal rank and then Lion (K) a formal rank.  The program started recruiting younger to keep the kids out of other activities, but kids benefit much less at those younger ages.  I see many parents looking at Lion / Tiger and seeing little benefit, a lot more work and a lot more repetition.

I've also seen higher drop out in K/1st grade years and lower initial recruitment numbers.  This seems to be a key issue.

Edited December 16, 2020 by fred8033

[yknot 1338]

57 minutes ago, fred8033 said:

Nature of the program. 

• Boy Scout families have dived in and need to keep swimming.  Cub Scout families are still testing the water to see if scouting is right for their kid.  High commitment versus little commitment. 
• Age of the scouts.  Older scouts take their friendship relationships much more seriously.  And want those to keep going.  
• Amount of work.  Cub Scouts is A LOT OF WORK for the parents.  Boy Scouts is much less work and more enjoyable.
• Boy Scouts is a journey with a goal many scouts want to achieve.  Cub Scouts has arrow of light that can be earned even if you join in the last 9/12 months.  People put Eagle on resume, but not arrow of light.  ... imho ... arrow of light is a reflection on parent and den.  Less on the kid.

Families can drop cubs right now with little loss.   Dropping from Boy Scouts has much bigger implications.  Friendships.  Ranks.  Activities.  

IMHO, kids lose little by missing the youngest scouting years.  Definitely, the K, 1st and 2nd grade scouting years.  If I could do it over again, I'd start my boys at Webelos year.  Maybe bear.   

There could be some recovery here as after the pandemic, families may be looking for ways to get their kids out and doing things.   And rebuilding friendships.

 

I think we need to be careful about overlaying our adult opinions on things. Part of the challenge with scouting is figuring out why so many kids drop out. I am/was a completely gung ho scouting parent, although my focus was more on outdoors and service. I had kind of a shocking moment with both my kids recently, now 20 and 15, when they both told me they loved cubs but mostly hated troop. It just stopped being fun. So you might think kids aren't getting anything out of cub scouting, but our target audience -- kids -- might have a different opinion. 

[fred8033 1593]

10 minutes ago, yknot said:

I think we need to be careful about overlaying our adult opinions on things. Part of the challenge with scouting is figuring out why so many kids drop out. I am/was a completely gung ho scouting parent, although my focus was more on outdoors and service. I had kind of a shocking moment with both my kids recently, now 20 and 15, when they both told me they loved cubs but mostly hated troop. It just stopped being fun. So you might think kids aren't getting anything out of cub scouting, but our target audience -- kids -- might have a different opinion. 

My experience is parents DECIDE to drop out of cub scouts and kids DECIDE to drop out of Boy Scouts. 

But, your comments are correct.

[yknot 1338]

1 minute ago, fred8033 said:

My experience is parents DECIDE to drop out of cub scouts and kids DECIDE to drop out of Boy Scouts. 

But, your comments are correct.

I think there is so much discussion and hand wringing on this site but it is focused on the wrong things. We're all talking about organizational structures and what we think kids need, but what scouting needs is to focus on is why kids don't join in the first place or drop out if they do. If kids loved our program, it would survive bankruptcy and abuse scandals, but the reality is that it's hard to recruit kids. 

[ProScouter06 34]

10 minutes ago, yknot said:

I think there is so much discussion and hand wringing on this site but it is focused on the wrong things. We're all talking about organizational structures and what we think kids need, but what scouting needs is to focus on is why kids don't join in the first place or drop out if they do. If kids loved our program, it would survive bankruptcy and abuse scandals, but the reality is that it's hard to recruit kids. 

That is very true. IMO it's cultural. Always has been. We could probably start a new thread on this topic alone.

Scouting, since it's begining and through the 50s and 60's at its peak, were as American as apple pie. It celebrated Americanism, patriotism, and our countries history and origin. It offered an escape for every class of youth to explore, to experience adventure outside of their homes, towns, and cities. Teaching life skills to prepare them for service to their community, nation and world. 

That cultural phenomenon has eroded for over 110 years.  Look where we are today. We are in a world that in many ways is a polar opposite of when the BSA started and grew. We are over-connected today. Kids have endless opportunities to connect, and explore different worlds, sports, gaming, social media etc... Kids are no longer taught patriotisim in schools, they are taught activisim. Folks, we are in a brave new world, and Scouting is considered a relic to many. Just look at the attacks over the decades of the BSA (for right or wrong, I'm not taking a side either way here) Perosnally I, and I am sure most in the community value Scouting and believe in it's impact on youth. Although to others the BSA may seem like a relic and unpopular, I would argue it is needed today more than ever before. That's why we must endure, and find ways to work together to sustain and grow despite some of our apparent differences as it relates to organizational structure as we have discussed in this thread. We must, as others have alluded to, find a way forward so more kids can beneift from what we know is the best youth program around. 

[yknot 1338]

4 minutes ago, ProScouter06 said:

That is very true. IMO it's cultural. Always has been. We could probably start a new thread on this topic alone.

Scouting, since it's begining and through the 50s and 60's at its peak, were as American as apple pie. It celebrated Americanism, patriotism, and our countries history and origin. It offered an escape for every class of youth to explore, to experience adventure outside of their homes, towns, and cities. Teaching life skills to prepare them for service to their community, nation and world. 

That cultural phenomenon has eroded for over 110 years.  Look where we are today. We are in a world that in many ways is a polar opposite of when the BSA started and grew. We are over-connected today. Kids have endless opportunities to connect, and explore different worlds, sports, gaming, social media etc... Kids are no longer taught patriotisim in schools, they are taught activisim. Folks, we are in a brave new world, and Scouting is considered a relic to many. Just look at the attacks over the decades of the BSA (for right or wrong, I'm not taking a side either way here) Perosnally I, and I am sure most in the community value Scouting and believe in it's impact on youth. Although to others the BSA may seem like a relic and unpopular, I would argue it is needed today more than ever before. That's why we must endure, and find ways to work together to sustain and grow despite some of our apparent differences as it relates to organizational structure as we have discussed in this thread. We must, as others have alluded to, find a way forward so more kids can beneift from what we know is the best youth program around. 

I think over the decades scouting became such a stalking horse for so many social issues, whether religious or otherwise. Instead, it should have just stood on its own and focused on being relevant to children. A lot of these headaches never would have existed if so. We could have easily staked out the outdoors/conservation ground and never did. It's not necessarily too late to still do so. 

[Eagledad 2779]

16 minutes ago, yknot said:

I think there is so much discussion and hand wringing on this site but it is focused on the wrong things. We're all talking about organizational structures and what we think kids need, but what scouting needs is to focus on is why kids don't join in the first place or drop out if they do. If kids loved our program, it would survive bankruptcy and abuse scandals, but the reality is that it's hard to recruit kids. 

LOL, right! Most of my posts on the issue of why scouts join and quit are based on polling and data acquired while I was active. But, many folks don't want to consider it because the data doesn't fit their opinion. Focusing on wrong things is in the eye of the poster. And forum thrive on it.

But, my post that seems to have started this misdirection wasn't about changing the program, I was thinking more at how to re-market the Cub program in the short term as an opportunity of getting the kids back to some normalcy.

Barry