Cburkhardt

My posting will be prospective thinking based in the well-understood effects of financial reorganizations. It will not be a source of insider information.

Quazse: That is an accurate way to put it. JoeBob: The reorganization will probably allow a good amount of creativity and change. Perhaps a worm farming merit badge is in our future.

My sense is that we will have a numeric basis upon which to build abut one year from this March. The LDS departures will have fully-manifested by then and we will have a better sense of how the currently-small girl Troops are growing and being retained. We'll also have a good idea of further growth in Cubs from girls. Our focus should be on forming, growing and retaining the girl units and retaining boy units for the next year or so. There is continued interest because of the newness of it all -- and several councils have not really done a good job on this yet. I think we have pretty-well discussed these numbers about as much as we can at this point. Next week I'll be changing my discussion focus with a new posting on the Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Rather than discussing the financial implications, I'll have a focus on how it can favorably impact operations and membership. Yes … I did use the word "favorably". The loss of some national cash and the administrative deformities that will occur with our need to focus resources on getting us through the bankruptcy process will detract. However, there will be an unavoidable need to recast certain national and local structures. Yes folks, the BSA can benefit in some ways from the upcoming change in personnel and organization. Store up your great ideas for my next posting.

When a Scouts BSA Troop forms in our area, it has not detracted from the local GSUSA units. In fact, in our city both programs are growing. There was an initial push-back from some of the GSUSA volunteers who thought we might be trying to strip-away their members, but this has just not occurred and their initial opposition to us has abated (at least among their volunteers). What has occurred is that girls who join our three Scouts BSA Troops for Girls are looking for something distinctly different from the GSUSA program. I'd let the girls speak for themselves, but believe a key difference is that we are intensely outdoor oriented in an urban environment (summer camp, seven 2-night weekend campouts, multiple day hikes and the great Scouts BSA outdoor advancement skills). We are careful to avoid characterizing the GSUSA program, but the local groups do not engaging outdoor programming anywhere approaching what we are doing. Several of our Scouts belong to both programs and, in their view, do not see much overlap. So, I encourage those who think the GSUSA units fully-serve the needs of girls in your area to re-assess your views. The market for youth program is vast and our ability to provide units is limited. It is always best to provide options for these girls if we have the capability to offer a unit.

Our troop has become the preferred destination point for sisters of boy Troop members from across our city. We will be at 40 by the time of summer camp and will continue to expand until we hit around 70. I was in a big troop as a Scout and believe that things just work better when you have a bigger operation. You can do more sophisticated things for youth and can provide more specialized program. We have 9 on our SM staff and will continue to scale-up. I have never, ever heard of a 2-Scout troop and until this massive kick-start effort, only once experienced a 5-Scout unit when I was on camp staff. The point being made really does not contribute much to the discussion. None of the leaders of small girl units I have met want to stay small — they just need a helping hand to grow more quickly.

Let’s focus on our reality. We have girls in this country who crave adventure and challenge. Let’s work on extending our program to them in a way that is a credit to our personal sense of service and our larger hopes for the nation’s future. Nobody can propose a better place for these young women to discover their futures. Nobody.

Jameson: The numbers came from the monthly distribution of membership reports to national volunteers. Those particular numbers were month end November compared to previous year month end November. Until month end December, we have the unique opportunity to see the effect of girl membership before the significant LDS drop of January.

PACAN: I agree with your comment on micro-sized girl Troops. My experience is that all micro Troops underserve their Scouts and have a high chance of dropping. In our district we have my larger stand-alone unit and two micro Troops that are linked to historic boy Troops. My sense is that these tiny units will experience slow growth and will ultimately survive. However, I now believe that the 3 - 4 stand alone units in our council are far better for the Scouts, because these have committees focused on building a single successful unit. Even for a guy like me who has 30 years of experience, it was a challenge to kick start a unit where there were no experienced Scouts and only a few experienced adults. Only now after a year of operations do things feel like “normal” operations. I was pleased our new adults were warmly welcomed into our District operation, and that made a big difference. I urge everyone out there to be supportive, because these units represent an important part of our future. They need the help that all units have always needed.

She will love it when she gets there. The 30 girls and 19 adult men and women in our all-girl, non-linked Troop are loving Scouts BSA just as it is.

And, just wait until the effect of the Coast Guard having designated Sea Scouts as its official youth program kicks in. Properly implemented, it could double that program in just a few years. It will also attract a newgeneration of youth leadership into the Coast Guard and the Coast Guard Auxiliary.

(Continued) but really is not. I believe the long tenure of many of our best volunteers is due to our practice of recognizing adults in this manner. It is a great tradition that provides enjoyment to many. Now, how about talking about how you are going to help form and grow some all-girl troops?

The purpose of my posting was to encourage comment on the membership number progress for Scouts BSA. Talking about the awarding and wearing of knots might seem to be off-topic

Like I said, it is not doom and gloom. We are in the midst of a very sophisticated program, management and financial workout. The BSA is here to stay — just not in the form of a yesteryear format. We have been changing all along and are doing so presently. Have great faith.

UPDATE. WSJ gives good account of a Monday call of the Council Scout Executives and their council lawyers. Ch. 11 expected to be filed for national without councils.

Good thoughts. My female number predictions are based on my 2 year experience of being involved with an early adopter cub group for girls and being a Scoutmaster of our 34-girl and non-linked Troop. About1/3 of the councils did a great job with the female program roll-out, which accounts for the lion’s share of the 150,000 new female youth we now have. Girls love Scouts BSA in a properly-managed unit. Despite the challenges and occasional mis-management, I think we will have about 35% female presence in Cubs and Scouts within 4 years. The financial restructuring through bankruptcy will make the BSA far more transparent than it ever has been. It really will force the issues you raise. Frankly, national and council executives who cannot support volunteers operate councils with effective unit-supporting districts that break-even will be dismissed. Perhaps that is the reality you hope for. The dues increase and continued pledging of assets against credit facilities were clearly intended to provide cash to get through these next few years. The people involved could have been more timely and forthcoming. However, these were probably rational business decisions.

After examining the year-end numbers and observing how Scouts BSA maintained membership, cubs lost slightly and venturers/Sea Scouts lost significantly, I have some predictions. After the early-year hit on membership numbers with the LDS departures, and without enough time for female membership to yet replace that loss, we will be down overall 15 to 20 percent in membership after that settles. Income from dues and other revenue streams reflecting membership at the council and national levels will reduce accordingly. We will probably experience a wholesale reorientation of the volunteer and professional structures back to servicing units. I think this will include streamlining or maybe even eliminating regions and areas. National might go back to a few National program committees and a skeletal structure focused on finance and operations. Many councils cannot survive a revenue downturn like this for more than a year. These are very easy things to determine by using basic financial analysis. I do not think it overly-bold to predict that at least 1/3 of our councils will be combined into stronger councils that can survive. Responsible council leaders should already be figuring out what is best at the local level. Severely under-utilized properties will be sold and proceeds put into trust to maintain and improve a smaller number of going-forward properties. The new CEO will cause the Chapter 11 to get filed to deal with the liability issue. All of these things will lead to a somewhat smaller and more unit-focused BSA. These are not doomsday predictions. In many respects these are long-needed actions.

Just landed in rainy Paris for a quick business trip and found out that our female youth membership already tops 150,000. So, we are well on the way to building good membership mass with American girls. This confirms there are good reasons to keep faith in the BSA.

Well, standing in line at the United counter waiting to fly on a delayed flight ... so no better time to respond to this. Friends, all will be well with the BSA after a couple of years. The female membership will be largely replacing the LDS and losses, our organization will be vigorously serving the entire family (just like the Scouters with daughters have been praying for for decades), we will have gotten past the liabilities of the YPT fails and bad business practices of the past, and yes — we will still have some great LDS families participating with us and providing adult leadership. I want to write that book about how our fine BSA of today overcame our membership policy difficulties, excessive property ownership and provided some reasonable justice to those kids who were abused — and transformed such difficulties into tremendous strengths. Yes, I’ll still be around here in a few years with my now-32 girl Troop (hopefully about 70 by then) and the millions of youth and leaders that will still very much be here. I’m now sitting next to a French guy on the plane who is a professional soccer player in KC (heading back to Paris to visit family). He says he loves America and is getting his green card so he can stay. I share that because the BSA is still that idealistic organization that wants to provide the best for people. This hand-wringing is misplaced. Let’s exhibit confidence and get this transformation job done the right way. We have important issues to process and will be different after the Ch. 11. I’m thinking we will be a better, more balanced organization and our program and units will benefit. Well, plane is taking off, so know on those optimistic thoughts if you wish.

Thanks Barry, but there is nothing visionary about my postings. I believe in following the program and leadership structure of the organization and have found after 35 years as a volunteer that ….. it almost always works. That is how good the BSA program and leadership development process is. When I was a District Chair (crazy as it sounds, I have served in just about every adult role out there from unit leader to our national governing entity) I found that if I just had about 10 great Scouters with me, we could do anything. It just takes good cheer and confidence. We only need to have about 10 great volunteers in a District to pull it all off, and there people are just waiting to be asked. They are the unit folks who have about 4 years of experience and are looking for something new to do that goes beyond the unit. Just ask them and they will say yes. This is going to sound almost fraudulent, but when I was a District Chair we formed about 15 new units. That was about 30 years ago, and 12 of those units are still going. Let's see, that's about 10 new youth a year for 30 years times 12. So, those people are responsible for about 3,600 kids that have experienced scouting as a result. Who ever said District work was neither fulfilling nor important?

None of you took-up my challenge and made your own membership predictions with support. I believe that new growth at this point shows that the female additions to our program are having a great impact on our membership and I further believe this will ultimately more than offset the recent and near-future departures. There is no math to "de-fuzz". We will lose a significant percentage and absolute number at the turn of the year from the LDS departures and there will be doomsayers predicting our demise as a result. But, this will all be offset. Four years from now I predict we will have 35% female presence in Scouts BSA and will be net bigger than we are now. These are not careless predictions. They are based on my close observation as a Scoutmaster of a 30-girl Troop regarding how youth and leaders have embraced the all-girl Troop roll-out. This is going to work very well and

While there might be a quick temporary fix to the immediate challenge (created by needing the extra youth protection form and the national fee increase), there is no easy fix when a geography has an abundance of under-sized units and scant unit leadership. If this is common in your locale it means that there is likely a district volunteer leadership fail going on. The councils in good shape that I admire began re-emphasizing the importance, function and volunteer "prestige" of the district chair, commissioner and other district leadership and committee positions a few years back. It really is that simple. When I was a Council President I looked around and saw an abundance of under-utilized volunteer talent at the council level and reallocated those resources to the key district positions. At the same time I increased the expectations, resources and visibility of those positions. That council was a large metropolitan council, so some of these districts effectively became "mini-councils" A District well-stocked with volunteers just does not allow this situation to develop to this extent. Take urgent action now to preserve those units by having another round of recruiting in January. Then turn immediately to figuring out what is happening at the district level. So this by having a quiet and businesslike meeting with your council membership chair and council commissioner. Suggest solutions appropriate to your community. Be a class act and bring along at least one experienced Scouter who is willing to work as a new district volunteer.

Membership numbers are out and reflect continued growth for the Scouts BSA program. End of November 2019 is +1.2% for youth Scouts and up 7.1% for units, in comparison to end of November 2018. This certainly reflects the influx of female Scouts and LDS departures. The figures that will count will be year-end figures, as that is when the LDS relationship officially ends. After the LDS departures take effect, I'm thinking we will have a 10% Scouts BSA youth membership drop (comparing 2019 year-end with 2018 year-end). If we continue to grow female Scouts BSA units and all youth at the current rate and retain 5% of our current LDS youth members, we could replace the losses within 1.5 to 2 years and return to net growth in this program. Given the challenges we have faced in recent months and years, this is better than I expected. What is your prediction? Please explain your opinion with reasoning and facts.

To the main question. The answer is yes. But, the price we paid by accepting the role of cultural punching bag in a social fight forced on us by group of Scouters who temporarily asserted control was catastrophic. Let's just move on to better and more-hopeful discussions. We chose by an overwhelming majority to move in a great direction a few years ago. The fight is over and won.

In a military matter there is time when the battle is joined. That precise time when strategy is executed and resources committed to effect a desired outcome. Confidentiality is required so as to not tip off the adversary. We are soon reaching that point and a change in our lead general will probably not significantly impact what is about to occur. The Chapter 11 will roll-out, the PR and legal battle will be joined and the realignment of our financial assets and organizational structures will follow. We will be temporarily leaner prior to the full build-out of our female membership. Surbaugh made great decisions and provided great leadership while he was in-place. He is to be thanked and congratulated. I am not worried about who will sit in the lead general chair on D-Day will be because the battle plan is already drawn and the resources are just about lined-up and in-place. This is going to be a successful endeavor in the near-term and over the coming years.

I wish the Church well with its future program. I also look forward to continued cheerful discussions of the BSA's future without regard or reference to what the Church or we might have done if its institutional engagement had remained. The Church decided to depart and do something which looks quite different for its evolved needs. It is clearly not Scouting-like and seems like the less-structured youth groups in many other churches. We are in a new and better programming and membership world. After we get through the bankruptcy and related financial reorganization challenges we will be in a far better overall position. A temporarily-leaner organization prior to a robust grow-out of our female membership.