Eagle1993

13 minutes ago, vol_scouter said:

Here is an Excel plot (with no alterations except to add the title so I cannot be accused of manipulating the graph) of the last 30 years of claims that the TCC was discussing as being so terrible.  Certainly, any occurrence of child abuse is too many but the trend is certainly dramatically decreasing.  There have been over 2 million members during most of the time of this graph and those members were not static so that every year some join while others leave.  Since I do not have actual tenure information, let us assume that the membership turns over every ten years (it is more frequent than that but let's consider a worse case scenario) then there would have been a three turnovers in 30 years or ~6 M individual Scouts.  So 11,000/6,000,000 = 0.00183 or 0.183%.  The trend is decreasing that number so the TCC seems to be picking only the facts that are flashy and do not clearly reflect the entire situation.

While 11,000 is large, the trend is dramatically decreasing and the percentage of the members is small over the last 30 years.  Using the same TCC supplied table, there were 480 claims in the last 10 years which is 480/2,000,000 = 0.00024 or 0.024%.

Seems to me that the BSA is combating child abuse effectively though it must continue to drive that number down.  The real vigilance must come from the parents.

True ... and I expect it should be better.  But as mentioned previously individuals youth may not report until their 30s or 40s.  So if the assault occurred on a 12 yo and in 1998 they would likely report it until 2020 on the early side.  I believe that would be part of the argument to not overestimate the reduction.  I still think YPT helped. 

32 minutes ago, MattR said:

I wouldn't start pushing scouts to get eagle or selling your gear.

I tend to agree. That said, go to summer camp.  Go to Philmont, if you can, this summer. Enjoy it now as there is no guarantee they will be there next summer. 

44 minutes ago, CynicalScouter said:

Life Scouts are going to be, in effect, assigned an ASM mentor. The two of them will ram and jam ASAP whatever is left for Eagle.

I've been seeing more panic parents pushing Eagle recently ... I wonder if this is in their mind as well.  

49 minutes ago, swilliams said:

Agree that it’s perhaps premature to send out a letter to parents. I have contacted our SM and CC.  We’re setting up a meeting for this weekend so we can start planning out our ‘what ifs’.

For me, we are at too many what ifs to really plan.  My primary concerns are:

- Philmont ... I have 2 crews going ... will that happen and is their money safe?

- Summary Camp ... will my camp be pulled by this summer and are our deposits safe.

I think, for now, both are safe for this summer so we move on.  The summer of 2022, on the other hand ....

32 minutes ago, BQZip said:

What SHOULD they do? What additional steps should be taken?

I'm not naive. Pedophiles (especially ones who are uncaught) target youth organizations like schools, scouts, churches, etc. If YPT is insufficient, what should be changed?

The only specific was releasing the names of everyone on the volunteer ban list. 

I took a look at other settlements and a couple of areas we may see changes (just a guess):

So, imagine opening up scouting.org ... there may be a big button that states report abuse.

The other areas I have seen is requirements for 0 tolerance policies.  If a youth or adult violates any aspect of YPT and its confirmed, they are out,  banned and don't be surprised if made public.  

The third is more public openness about policies and violations that have been reported.

These are some of the non monetary changes I have seen in lawsuits.

2 minutes ago, InquisitiveScouter said:

Yikes...one reason we left our last CO because room rental was costing our Troop around $700 a year.

Saturday all day events hits us hard.  Overtime for custodian staff.  The day of the week meeting cost isn't bad ... PWD alone is $500+ for room rental. 

Just now, yknot said:

Do you have to provide a COI to meet in any of those places? 

Nope.  Just a check or cash.  These are meeting rooms anyone in our village can reserve online.  It costs us about $4,000 per year between the Pack and Troop.  Our CO does not have a building.

3 minutes ago, walk in the woods said:

So where are your council-owned units going to meet?  Do you really think if lawsuits start hitting your local churches, Legion Posts, Firemen's Associations, and VFW Halls, that any of them will ever let a BSA unit in their buildings again?  They'll close down their facilities to all youth serving organizations in a heartbeat.

Where we meet today.  We don't meet at our CO.  We pay for meeting space at libraries and public rental locations that are open to all groups.  

31 minutes ago, ThenNow said:

Were your respective Councils keeping you, in the field, updated about these numbers? Over the past year, I saw news reports of Councils blowing off talk of "legitimate abuse claims" against them, even while claims were being filed, logged and publicly noted on sites like AIS.

No.  

I've decided to stop FOS or any fundraising that helps my council.  They have over 200 claims.  I expect most of my funds will go to a bankruptcy settlement.  I will give them the funds I typically provide post bankruptcy settlement.  I'm going to recommend my Troop and Pack take a similar plan ... save your contributions and then provide post settlement.

47 minutes ago, ThenNow said:

Through the last two years, have you guys received any trickle down news or tactical planning from above? This whole operation, as illustrated by the non-plan Plan - little detail, no commitment from LC's, completely misreading or ignoring the other side's likely reaction -appears to lack any sophisticated risk management/tiered A, B, C contingency planning. Am I wrong? They have high powered big law with them so I don't get it. From a purely survival and business planning standpoint, it amazes me if they weren't "gaming this out" for a year or more.

The only message ... this bankruptcy only effects national.  It has no impact on the councils, units or COs.  A bit of info trickled out that we may pay into a fund but no real serious discussion of impacts.  Given that nearly every council said the same thing (you can see this in media feeds) I expect that was directed by National.

They may have been gaming this out, but they have not prepared us for any impact.

5 hours ago, BQZip said:

 

I’m just a layperson, but the people who want millions each are being unreasonable. All the councils and units put together don’t have those assets. Offering $330M is ~20% of ALL assets. Let’s say it’s everything they own, which isn’t a reasonable figure either. It would be $30k/person. The money these people envision simply isn’t there. 

What they made clear is they expect 100% of assets that are non restricted.  LCs haven’t shared that data so they don’t know if $300M is enough.   If a camp is restricted, prove it.  If you can’t they want it. Otherwise, face 10,000+ lawsuits. 

A few more points.

TCC clarified that there are 101K claims.  They said 83K were unique.  They also clarified they believe some may be fraud most most are true.  They also said the data issues on many claims need to be cleaned up and have examples.  (One claim didn’t list the council.  When they looked they found the individual put the council name next to the Troop number in the Troop field.). Again, they think there are some false claims bust my takeaway is they believe most are real.

TCC’s goal is maximum payout.  They do not care if BSA cannot function post bankruptcy.  They also cannot force liquidation. Their belief is that there will be no”yes” vote unless they have at least the liquidation value of BSA.

If BSA fights hard, this could take years and involve thousands of lawsuits.  Essential the message is surrender or face legal destruction. Give up every National and local asset (camp) that you cannot prove is encumbered.  I expect most BSA camps will be lost... especially those that have any real value.

TCC believes YPT is weak as there are a ton of claims post YPT.  They are demanding changes.   

Will BSA survive?  It will likely be up to volunteers putting on unit level activities at non BSA camps.  It will also depend on the YPT changes....   I think it will survive but be nothing like the BSA I knew. 

News starting to hit local councils.  That was fast.

North Carolina Boy Scouts accused of underpaying abuse survivors (wxii12.com)

46 minutes ago, MattR said:

Is it possible we're overreacting?

I hope so.  I’m just not convinced the BSA evolves quickly enough to survive this.

Just now, Eagle1993 said:

They get $1M per month.  The TCC lawyers do at least.  

To be clear. The TCC legal team, accountants, etc are all billed to BSA.  They have to pay them.  They are not working on contingency.   

Just now, MattR said:

Is it possible we're overreacting? I mean, follow the money. If the TCC doesn't get a 66% vote then all these lawyers working for the TCC get? Much less than going after each individual case.

They get $1M per month.  The TCC lawyers do at least.  

4 minutes ago, ThenNow said:

I can be naive, as you well know, but is there no one who foresaw the high likelihood of this very backlash from the non-plan Plan they filed? It’s too late to run back with whiteout and a red pen, but they really and truly hung everyone out on this. Too be further gullible, any chance they got the message?

Part of me thinks National gets it.  They are only protecting their “restricted” assets.  If the judge decides they are not “restricted” they will go to the Trust.  The TCC announced they will sue JP Morgan (likely over the Philmont line of credit).   So National is pretty clear... decide if HA bases are protected and clear up the JP Morgan mess.  

The billion dollar question is the hundreds of local councils.  Will they get it and turn over everything.   I’m not convinced.  

COs I expect will head down the lawsuit path.   

Just now, ThenNow said:

I am genuinely sorry.

Not your fault.  
I hope BSA goes back to their documents and really looks at what are restricted assets and offers everything else.   Then build a non CO model as I expect COs are gone..  Then settle with protection for the LCs and let the COs fend for themselves.

If they do this, BSA can survive.  I just don’t trust BSA’s leadership and I think they will realize this too late in the process and we will lose most of our camps.  

4 minutes ago, ThenNow said:

Honestly, I think the message was misheard, but I understand the reaction. What was said, to closely paraphrase was, "go file now because the lawsuits are the only way to put pressure on them to come to the table." 

I clarified in a later post.  I agree.

2 minutes ago, Eagle1993 said:

 

They are telling every individual (83,000) to file every individual lawsuit they can against CO and LCs based on their rights.  Some cannot file due to SOLs but 10,000s will.

To be clear... this is to pressure LC and COs to pay up proactively.  If they can essentially get a liquidation value from the majority of councils I expect they would push for approval and blocking lawsuits.  COa haven’t offered a dime. LCs offer was small. So either deal with 20-40 thousand lawsuits or pay up.

21 minutes ago, mrjohns2 said:

Meh. So, we lose the HA camps, the offices, etc. We will come back immediately afterwards. 

I hope you are right.  I really do.  

 However, they have hired forensic accountants to go over every LC asset.   It if isn’t restricted it should go to the trust.  We may lose a ton of local camps.    

11 minutes ago, mrjohns2 said:

Meh. So, we lose the HA camps, the offices, etc. We will come back immediately afterwards. 

8 minutes ago, ThenNow said:

Point of clarification. Do you take that to mean file in and across the broad universe of LC's and CO's or just open-states? I don't know many PI attorneys that will gin up in the closed states, unless I'm missing something. Well, I don't know many of them period, but that's another matter.

They are telling every individual (83,000) to file every individual lawsuit they can against CO and LCs based on their rights.  Some cannot file due to SOLs but 10,000s will.

4 minutes ago, mrjohns2 said:

Meh. So, we lose the HA camps, the offices, etc. We will come back immediately afterwards. 

National isn’t the issue.   They plan to go after 7 sources of income. 
 

1) National assets

2) National insurance companies 

3) Local Council Assets

4) LC insurance companies 

5) CO assets

6) CO insurance companies 

7) Individual assets

I expect lawsuits to go on for years, leaving to loss of COs and local camps with a decade or so of bankruptcies of churches, LCs, clubs, etc.  

Or BSA the LCs and COs really increase their offer until 66% approve.  

Dont think because there is a bunch of NAs the data doesn’t exist.  Many claims have the details just in the wrong fields and they are working through that.  Expect council and CO claims to increase.

Minimum payment of plan must be at least equal to liquidation of BSA.  So they are comparing plan to total liquidation of the BSA and the plan must meet that at minimum.  Their accountants are working through that now.

Creditors cannot force a non profit into chapter 7.  The court cannot convert to chapter 7.  BSA can convert it on its own.  Bankruptcy case can be dismissed which means each individual can sue BSA individually. 

They spent time telling individuals how to obtain counsel.   Get ready for a wave of CO and LC lawsuits this summer.