CynicalScouter

TCC estimated claims values (NOTE: TCC specifies the sexual act, I am referring to "Tiers") Base Min Base Max 9.63% of Base Min Open Gray 1 Midpoint Gray 2 Midpoint Gray 3 Midpoint Closed Midpoint 100.00% 60.00%

The judge has now plowed over the TCC lawyers twice. She is in move, move, move mode.

US Trustee noting that these documents got filed literally 15 minutes before the hearing and that the parties need time to review. Judge wants to walk through now.

Here is where BSA and TCC differ: BSA in its computation of expected amounts to victims is using HIGH END and LOW END numbers. So for a Tier 1 claim, it is giving estimates based on $2,700,000 and $600,000. TCC is computing entirely on the low end number. As for total abuse claims: TCC BSA

Red line version of the Modified Amended Disclosure Statement https://casedocs.omniagentsolutions.com/cmsvol2/pub_47373/8ad0771c-f79e-40c9-ae6c-4e145ccac9f9_6418.pdf New Timetable: Voting October 15-December 14; results December 21. Scaling factors are added. Gray 1/2/3 is back AND they have a chart for claims values for both BSA's version and the TCC version. Pages 33-35 (BSA version) and page 37 (TCC). My 9.5% estimate was correct enough (actual is 9.63%). My math is within a few hundred dollars of the TCC math. I will NOT list the data because it mentions particular

BSA now has "Amended Modified" Fifth Plan https://casedocs.omniagentsolutions.com/cmsvol2/pub_47373/dc37de84-9011-43a7-9594-ccc67f679861_6416.pdf This is the red line version https://casedocs.omniagentsolutions.com/cmsvol2/pub_47373/35c0918c-f981-48da-9dbc-48b0cf9f111b_6417.pdf I see some additions of note They are STILL insisting on ALL claimants voting as a block and NOT dividing $3500 vs. non-$3500. See page 48. Although they did add the language back in about the election being on the ballot, so I guess this is getting pushed off to confirmation.

So, if Plan 5.5. fails and the judge orders a BSA-only cramdown, which councils are most likely to go into bankruptcy first? Hard to say, but what we CAN say is how many councils as of August 17 are named defendants in lawsuits. https://casedocs.omniagentsolutions.com/cmsvol2/pub_47373/cb5441eb-c31d-4917-979b-f9bfc64b4833_189.pdf All 17 councils in NY are facing, at minimum, 20+ lawsuits. Greater New York has hundreds. You can easily assume all 17 are in Chapter 11 the day after a BSA-only cramdown. Ditto the 22 councils in California, even the relatively small Western Los

I have to think in the end the judge is never, ever going to simply let BSA bleed out of cash and die. So yes, and I'll acknowledge it has never happened in the context of sexual abuse based bankruptcies, that in the end the judge will order BSA to pay in the $220 million (or however much it has left at that point) to a settlement trustee and be done with it. That of course leaves the LCs completely up creeks without paddles and will immediately/within a month lead to a dozen LCs filing their own bankruptcies.

Century is now submitting its own proposed solicitation package in the form of edits to the BSA's plan. Very few changes. https://casedocs.omniagentsolutions.com/cmsvol2/pub_47373/94567283-c3b5-4a90-b3fa-f3f76f68e498_6415.pdf 1) Law firms must provide a specific document showing they have to power to vote on behalf of every client. This would mean thousands of powers of attorney or similar that specifically state the claimant allows the lawyer to vote the ballot. 2) The (Century) want the power as a "party in interest" to demand those documents. 3) All attorneys will certif

Kosnoff is claiming that with no way to get 2/3rds (now that the $3500 box remains) that the confirmation hearing will never happen. Here is where I have a two questions: 1) EVEN IF the vote comes back 99% against, it was my understanding that confirmation hearing will still take place because that is where the BSA will attempt to get the toggle cramdown to save itself. 2) I was not listening in at the time, but was the question resolved at the front end to treat those accepting the $3500 as a separate class altogether?

Other COs do NOT have the situation LDS has. 1) LDS was, in effect, the SINGLE Chartering Organization for all their units. No other group is like that. As was pointed out by the attorney for the Methodists and Catholics (ad hoc committees): the CO wasn't The United Methodist Church of America. It was UMC Church of Smalltown, USA. It wasn't the Diocese of Dallas or even the Roman Catholic Church, it was St. Paul's of Smalltown, USA. 2) LDS' price point was around $100,000 (250 million / 2500) with $100 BILLION in assets. As I said before: for them $250 million is a rounding error. As

The Coalition lawyers were pushing for "this is just a down payment, there's more to come from the insurance companies". Of course, as has been pointed out, now that Hartford has set the standard (787 million / 24000 = $32791) no other insurance companies are going to accept anything other than the Hartford deal.

Even if you somehow doubled it or tripled the numbers I came up with, for victims in statute of limitations states, the numbers are just not going to be THAT much better than $3500. And that's after having to go through the settlement trustee system, being subject to interviews by the trustee or his/her staff, etc.

Based on Stang's two comments yesterday about how much victims could expect under the existing plan, I am trying to extrapolate. Stang said in an open state Tier 1 abuse (he used the exact term, I am not) was $57,000 and that in the "next level state" was $34,600. Assume that means a Gray 1 state. We know from the RSA that the old scaling factors were Open 1.0 Gray 1 .50-.70 Gray 2 .30-.45 Gray 3 .10-.25 Closed .01-.10 If $57,000 represents 100% value (open state) what is 34,600? around 60%, the midpoint of Gray 1. And $57,000 is

His "let's remember today is the anniversary of the founding of BSA" comment at one of the hearings was as you recall not well received.

I have heard the same locally: no Friends of Scouting or other donations until there is 100% certainty it won't go to a settlement That said, BSA has been pleading poverty so long it is getting tiresome. Now, it may be true that they thought they'd run out of cash by August and were able to tap into "restricted" funds. For example, and I've had this confirmed, the "restricted" Order of the Arrow funds have at this point been completely raided. This gets into the issue of co-mingling, but that's another story. But trying to ram and jam a bad deal? As the US Trustee said: maybe if BSA

“Oh but we will be out of money by then” and the “melting ice cube” etc.

The zoom update says 12 but her official calendar 12:30 https://www.deb.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/moveit/LSS.html

Yep 23.809 billion and change. 1.88 billion is only 7.8%. That is the big FCR/Coalition “win”?!?! Less than 8%?!? That is literally pennies on the dollar. Not even dimes or nickels. Pennies.

They don’t need to get a majority. They just need to get 33% to oppose. That gets a LOT easier if they can subtract the quick-buck group. I really cannot wait to see the TCC plan.

The hardest part for the TCC is convincing clients to go AGAINST the recommendation of their lawyers who will be making the case to take Plan 5.5. Also any word on the $3500 issue?

Which means voting should be in I would guess around New Years Day. I really really hope for the sake of victims the TCC gets to put in some kind of “this is how much you are going to get” even though as I said I know it is hard to do. Or at least example cases (Tier 1 abuse victim in an open state with NO other factors = 57,000)

Did she give a scheduling outline I had to drop off

She has expresssd this concern before. Not new

Because whereas BSA was active in trying to keep the amount of sexual abuse happening quiet at all costs, the COs were "merely" negligent in failing to actual monitor and supervised the adults they were signing the applications for. Neither has an excuse in my book.