This mirrors my observations in my area: There is a big hole in the program, the bubble is currently at the age of crossover scouts. These kids missed the first years of Cub Scouting during Covid lockdown. Then when these families returned to activities, they limited themselves. Some chose to stick to sports or other activities, so they didn't consider scouting. So fewer kids made it up the ranks in Cub Scouts. It doesn't effect younger scouts as much: Lions, Tigers, Wolves... because they began school/activities after lockdown. Families are in a crunch. It takes more and more commitment to choose an activity. Especially sports are not one season anymore. It gets really competitive starting in middle grades: there is off-season training and competitions that last more than one season, etc. Whether it is fall baseball, indoor soccer in the winter, etc. They feel left out if they only play one season of a sport. Not to mention all the costs involved. So if the kid chooses a sport, it doesn't leave much room for scouting.  Even though there are fewer scouts remaining, it means the scouts that continue in the program are more committed than ever.

What am I missing with the "travel sports" thing?  It seems far more time stealing and financially draining to me.  And few of the kids ever will go beyond to make a living, though perhaps it will help some gets scholarships.  Again though, I missed most of those options as a youth due to the time period of the late fifties.  Local sports groups often were very selective, or developed on civic lines.  In my case, while I wanted to do Little League, I could not, as we lived in an L.A. County area surrounded by the city of Azusa, and my address did not allow me to join.  Of course, that was before the onset of so many other sports and parental fanaticism.  

" Folks spend way more time figuring our how to game the system than, well, I don't know, going camping."    Triple plus star for this.  And that applies to most of the more popular and consistent parts of the program.    

I just did a crossover with our primary feeder pack.  The pack has 90 scouts.  Roughly 20 Lions, 20 Tigers, 20 Wolves, 15 Bears, 10 Webelos and 5 AOL.  Of the 5 AOL only 1 wants to continue in Scouts.  That 1 only joined Cub Scouts this year.... I talked with the other 4 parents.  - They are looking to reduce activities after 5th grade - All are planning to increase their kids involvement in travel sports.... So no time left for scouts

This thread is bumping with all of the controversial topics. I don't buy the stages of decline. Most of the changes are in line with the international scouting community (the name is more inline with international naming conventions, 173 of the 216 WOSM members are full coed at last count, shooting sports is heavily regulated in most countries, this seems like standardization not grasping for straws.). I've heard the moms discussion points, it's what BSA teaches the professional scouters to focus on. For some reason there is an emphasis on hooking moms on the value of the program and little to no focus on dads; maybe it has something to do with the more than 50% of moms being single so perhaps BSA see's moms as the primary decision maker for kids activities? I agree with a lot of the side chatter on that chart, there seems to be a lot of outside influence on those membership numbers (post war baby booms, economics, etc ... ). I don't agree at all with the watering down of the program or gaming the system comments. Advancement is a method, having fun should run parallel to 12-18 month advancement plan. There is a huge link to staying in the program and going to summer camp; almost every scout gains some advancement at summer camp which is probably the reason. I hear a lot of beyond sub par SM/ASM in my area talk about "fun" and "not advancement mills" and they all seem to have the same problem, scouts stuck below first class and then dropping from the program. again advancement is a method, far too many SM ignore it. I don't think the LDS exodus was as bad as everyone claims. LDS refuses to share membership numbers for their internal program since 2021; meanwhile if you check the LDS contingents website and photos to the world jamboree somehow everyone LDS that went was wearing BSA uniforms, patches, regalia, etc ... oh and they appear to be coed now to. I would love to see some numbers on LDS and on the previous LDS units. Utah has like 200+ units these days; how is that possible in a permanent exodus? Too much doom and gloom.