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Another Bubble

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Yah, I was just thinkin' about economic bubbles and such.


Generally speaking, they have certain characteristics, eh? They start with some good investment ideas that are successful, gradually the success is noticed and others join in. Others joinin' in makes things seem more successful, though really da fundamentals are getting less sound. Da seeming success draws more people, and some start becoming "true believers." As da bubble nears the end of its run, da early investors have backed away and started to hedge, but da "true believers" double down, claiming "this time is different, this time is special, etc." Increasingly, the justifications become less rational and more emotional. In the end, the thing is supported only by da increasingly irrational "believers" and those doubling down to the point of fraud. And then it collapses.


Based on that description, I think that "modern conservativism" has almost all da characteristics of a bubble. We'll have to wait and see, of course. It's hard to predict exactly when a bubble is goin' to collapse. They're always easier to view in hindsight.


Don't know why I thought of that, maybe I've been lookin' at too much economic data these days in a market that should be played short. Da thoughts sorta coalesced while reading in disgust about da Catholic bishop of Kansas City, a high-and-mighty theological "conservative" by all accounts, who was indicted for once again covering up child pornography by a priest. Da Catholic folks on the list will have to describe how it's possible, after all the pain their church in da states has been through, for a fellow to be that callously daft. Makes all da obnoxious things we Protestant types have been sayin' about your hierarchy ring true. :p


For my part, I can't help but think that modern "conservativism", in all of its forms (religious and secular) is due for a collapse.


Beavah(This message has been edited by Beavah)

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All we know for sure is that Beavah brand liberalism was a loser at the polls last year and Obamaism is lagging significantly. His vaunted "jobs" package is DOA in the Congress.


It's reasonably possible that Obama will prove to be another Jimmy Carter and the Republican nominee, whoever that might be, might occupy the White House.


If that happens all Beavah's hopes will be dashed.



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Yah, da problem with pendulums is that their motion ain't the same, eh? Pendulums decelerate as they approach da extremes, where bubbles accelerate, and then "pop" rather suddenly. Think of how McCarthyism played out, for example.


Pendulums are physical systems, eh? They're too regular and predictable for modeling social systems. :)




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Dunno Beavah, there are plenty of social scientists using modeling techniques to do this sort of thing in ways that aren't so different from modeling the arc of a pendulum. (though generally speaking, I'm not a huge fan of this approach)


Anyway, one thing that's different about student debt is that students are typically a rather invisible political group and so there's little incentive to change the laws on student loan debt. And unfortunately I don't think that'll change anytime soon. Many younger people are becoming more politically active, yes, but not in conventional politics.

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