Eagle1993 2160 Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 3 hours ago, 5thGenTexan said: Circle 10 at the end of Sept. 33,000 registered. I found a strategic plan online from a Circle 10 discussion in late 2020. Their goals then: 2020 - 44,000 2021 - 44,700 2022 - 46,000 2023 - 48,000 33,000 is concerning, at least vs the plan 8146795-StrategicPlan-2021-2023-1647373160710.pdf 1 Link to post Share on other sites
yknot 1338 Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 55 minutes ago, Eagle1993 said: I found a strategic plan online from a Circle 10 discussion in late 2020. Their goals then: 2020 - 44,000 2021 - 44,700 2022 - 46,000 2023 - 48,000 33,000 is concerning, at least vs the plan 8146795-StrategicPlan-2021-2023-1647373160710.pdf 2.6 MB · 2 downloads If the 4% holds in January and then March depending what happens with the paused UMC recharters, I would say any positive growth is good. What I'm more concerned about, though, is that the 33,000 includes a lot of dead or soon to be dead registrations from the prior cycle. That's always been the problem with membership numbers released between now and Dec. 31 and really until March of the coming year. Some councils might be tidier than others though. I have no idea what Circle 10's history of accuracy is. In my home councils, it's pretty much fiction until March. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
mrjohns2 577 Posted October 11, 2022 Author Share Posted October 11, 2022 1 hour ago, yknot said: That's always been the problem with membership numbers released between now and Dec. 31 and really until March of the coming year. Every year that would happen. For year on year growth, our council uses current to last year’s 12/31. As long as one doesn’t compare 4/1 to end of year for % growth, it shouldn’t be bad. Link to post Share on other sites
Eagle1993 2160 Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 2 hours ago, yknot said: If the 4% holds in January and then March depending what happens with the paused UMC recharters, I would say any positive growth is good. What I'm more concerned about, though, is that the 33,000 includes a lot of dead or soon to be dead registrations from the prior cycle. That's always been the problem with membership numbers released between now and Dec. 31 and really until March of the coming year. Some councils might be tidier than others though. I have no idea what Circle 10's history of accuracy is. In my home councils, it's pretty much fiction until March. What I find interesting, is that Circle 10 signed off on their targets in October of 2020, and at that time, predicted they would have 44,000 scouts by the end of 2020. Now, nearing the end of 2022, they see 33,000 as growth. I can't imagine that is a good sign (they were targeting 46,000 scouts for end of 2022 only 2 years ago). 1 Link to post Share on other sites
yknot 1338 Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 4 hours ago, mrjohns2 said: Every year that would happen. For year on year growth, our council uses current to last year’s 12/31. As long as one doesn’t compare 4/1 to end of year for % growth, it shouldn’t be bad. I don't know about your council but the councils around here, aside from a random bump, have been in a membership decline reflective of national trends for maybe 10 years or so. It's been possible to hide the gradual declines, or make them less obvious, by playing with percentages, numbers and dates and they've done so as did National last year. We'll see what happens in 2023 because by then everything should shake out. Link to post Share on other sites
PACAN 220 Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 Making percentage comparisons all depend on where you start. I think Circle Ten is probably one of the top 5 councils in membership. So for their increasing 4% is more youth but a smaller council of 1000, 4% is only 40 youth. JMHO Link to post Share on other sites
PACAN 220 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 Any one heard/seen and recent numbers? Link to post Share on other sites
mrjohns2 577 Posted October 24, 2022 Author Share Posted October 24, 2022 I can tell you about our district. So a very micro view 1600 10/31/21 1650 12/31/21 1740 10/23/22 Link to post Share on other sites
RichardB 219 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 14 hours ago, PACAN said: Any one heard/seen and recent numbers? Suggest you all who are interested and engaged with your councils ask to review the September Stack Charts - Council Performance Standards available for your council / NST. They are published monthly and distributed via the NST's. The most recent was published for September 2022 and shows youth recruiting up 6.03% compared to September 2021. 938,771 youth recruited in 2022. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
PACAN 220 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 @RichardB Thanks for the info. I'm guessing you meant 938,771 total membership at the end of September. Is this report something you would be willing to share with the group on a monthly basis? I'm guessing councils would be reluctant to give this out although this should be shared with every key three. Link to post Share on other sites
JSL3300 11 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Our district just sent out cub recruitment numbers in an effort to draw out registrations that are laying around. Included in the table are numbers at the end of last year, recruitment numbers and numbers from as of 10/21/22. Almost exactly the same amount were recruited as left. Last year ended with 786. Right now there are 790. There are a couple outlier packs that either gained or lost 15-20 but most groups are up or down 2-8 scouts. Some exactly replaced those that left. I see this as not great or terrible news. Our pack is up 2. I like where we're sitting and don't see it as a numbers game at a hyperlocal level, but know that all of that adds up if we look at the bigger picture. Link to post Share on other sites
JSL3300 11 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 If I'm not supposed to share this level of detail, let me know and I'll remove. I can't see any reason these numbers shouldn't be public, so here's what one district is looking at: Packs Current Scouts as of 10-21-22 Number of new Scouts 2022 Scouts Last Year End Diff 3300 39 13 37 2 3384 22 8 14 8 3385 56 15 57 -1 3387 35 5 48 -13 3390 24 1 42 -18 3402 44 8 44 0 3403 9 3 0 9 3405 17 3 11 6 3409 25 5 25 0 3411 65 15 40 25 3454 54 12 56 -2 3455 31 13 26 5 3501 50 7 55 -5 3502 19 6 11 8 3506 45 8 38 7 3507 41 10 39 2 3508 11 1 20 -9 3512 10 0 26 -16 3513 40 14 30 10 3517 82 16 80 2 3519 16 6 12 4 3520 36 19 23 13 3527 20 0 25 -5 Totals 790 188 786 8 Link to post Share on other sites
PACAN 220 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 2 hours ago, JSL3300 said: If I'm not supposed to share this level of detail, let me know and I'll remove. I can't see any reason these numbers shouldn't be public, so here's what one district is looking at: Packs Current Scouts as of 10-21-22 Number of new Scouts 2022 Scouts Last Year End Diff 3300 39 13 37 2 3384 22 8 14 8 3385 56 15 57 -1 3387 35 5 48 -13 3390 24 1 42 -18 3402 44 8 44 0 3403 9 3 0 9 3405 17 3 11 6 3409 25 5 25 0 3411 65 15 40 25 3454 54 12 56 -2 3455 31 13 26 5 3501 50 7 55 -5 3502 19 6 11 8 3506 45 8 38 7 3507 41 10 39 2 3508 11 1 20 -9 3512 10 0 26 -16 3513 40 14 30 10 3517 82 16 80 2 3519 16 6 12 4 3520 36 19 23 13 3527 20 0 25 -5 Totals 790 188 786 8 So how many of the 786 Cubs at the end of the year crossed over or did the just drop out? Link to post Share on other sites
JSL3300 11 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 It would be interesting to know. They can't have the numbers for how many didn't sign back up at the beginning of this year, right? Their only insight into our roster is recharter and crossover. I'd love to see these numbers again in January. Link to post Share on other sites
jcousino 70 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 not sure how to understand these numbers (ie) pack 3300 current 10--21 (39) does this number include the scouts that have left the pack, but their registration is still valid until 12-31 so a total on 2-23 will be much fewer members if i understand this right. If they are reporting numbers not allowing for registration losses these numbers are highly misrepresentative. to better report this they need a column for expected registration losses plus transfers to troops Link to post Share on other sites
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