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Chapter 11 Announced - Part 4 Revised Plan


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32 minutes ago, CynicalScouter said:

Yeah, there's a lot of this that is operating on a sorta "let's try this and hope no one legally challenges it"

The body language of the TCC people last night was unmistakable. The mediation has fully finally failed. Tonight you will hear that admission. The “New” plan is the same as the old plan. Still full of gaping holes that can’t be filled. It won’t survive confirmation. If it does, it won’t get anywhere close to 2/3rds. Failure. Take it or leave it, is what the legal brain trust is going to tell you. 
 

Even the US Trustee will argue it is illegal to grant 3rd party releases and cannot be confirmed. 
 

There is no real money to distribute after deduction of future claims reserves and settlement trustee litigation reserves. 

The whole case has been disastrously managed. By all of them.  

 

 

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@CynicalScouter Thanks from me and frankly, surely everyone, for tracking on the status of National's bankruptcy pleadings, and the procedural steps, past and pending, in the Bankruptcy case. And your

Okay. Enough. If you aren't talking about court proceedings then drop it.  It would be a shame to lock this thread now.

A few random observations from watching this bankruptcy unfold over the past several months: The focus has clearly been on protecting the national organization first and then the local councils.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, ThenNow said:

If memory serves (big if), this means about 50,000 men are about to get b-slapped.

58,150

BSA conducted a Unique and Timely Abuse Claim Count (82,458) and then listed only those "Not-Barred, Unique & Timely Abuse Claims" (24,308)

82,458-24,308 = 58,150 See page 340 https://casedocs.omniagentsolutions.com/cmsvol2/pub_47373/213bd53f-b44f-45c9-97fc-246bcb7ca06b_4108.pdf

Under the terms of the BSA reorg plan, those 58,150 claims will be reviewed by the Settlement Trustee and a claim amount assessed and that amount will then be reduced to 1%. So, a $750,000 claim will become $7,500.

Quote

Statute of Limitations or Repose. If the evidence presented by the Abuse Claimant results in the Settlement Trustee concluding that the subject Abuse Claim could be dismissed or denied in the tort system due to the passage of a statute of limitations or due to a statute of repose, the Settlement Trustee shall apply a Scaling Factor of .01; provided, however,the Settlement Trustee will weigh the strength of any relevant evidence submitted by the Abuse Claimant to determine whether the statute of limitations could be tolled under applicable law based on a Protected Party’s conduct, and may apply a higher Scaling Factor if such evidence demonstrates to the Settlement Trustee that tolling would be appropriate under applicable state law; provided, further, any Direct Abuse Claim that is substantially reduced pursuant to this mitigating Scaling Factor that becomes the subject of statute of limitations revival legislation may be re-determined in the sole discretion of the Settlement Trustee.

 

Edited by CynicalScouter
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5 minutes ago, Muttsy said:

The body language of the TCC people last night was unmistakable. The mediation has fully finally failed. Tonight you will hear that admission. The “New” plan is the same as the old plan. Still full of gaping holes that can’t be filled. It won’t survive confirmation. If it does, it won’t get anywhere close to 2/3rds. Failure. Take it or leave it, is what the legal brain trust is going to tell you. 
 

Even the US Trustee will argue it is illegal to grant 3rd party releases and cannot be confirmed. 
 

There is no real money to distribute after deduction of future claims reserves and settlement trustee litigation reserves. 

The whole case has been disastrously managed. By all of them.  

 

 

I personally don't feel all is doom and gloom.  I found it interesting that the TCC said that the BSA was not happy no ones happy.  That is usually a good sign of compromise.  Also BSA was on the clock.

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Posted (edited)

Slight update on the rosters...

May 19th was the "Roster Production Date", when BSA and Councils shared some information with the TCC and the Coalition.

In turn, TCC shared some summary files with counsel for claimants (and with self-represented claimants). I've done some analysis on those files.

Out of roughly 82,500 non-duplicate claims (and claim numbers up to 106665), there were 40392 claims that Councils checked against their records. (The others might have not specified a Council, or specified only a post-1999 claim, or specified a council that didn't even bother searching because they already know that they do not have records for the dates in question.) Of those,

  • 11618 were found;
  • 29203 were not found;
  • 429 were mixed found/not found (claims that specified multiple councils).

Also out of the roughly 82,500 non-duplicate claims, BSA did a search on 14175 of them. Of those,

  • 3404 were found
  • 1150 were reported as "Possible match"
  • 9621 were not found

And 5629 of the claims were searched for in both places.

Edited by DavidLeeLambert
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4 minutes ago, Muttsy said:

It won’t survive confirmation. If it does, it won’t get anywhere close to 2/3rds. Failure. Take it or leave it, is what the legal brain trust is going to tell you. 

And that leads us to

  1. A failed bankruptcy where BSA exits bankruptcy only to be sued thousands of times OR
  2. A cramdown by the judge
  3. BSA remains in bankruptcy, the exclusivity period ends, and the TCC/FCR come up with their own reorg plan
7 minutes ago, Muttsy said:

There is no real money to distribute after deduction of future claims reserves and settlement trustee litigation reserves. 

Frankly, there never was from BSA at least and even the LCs. I come back to the math I did 6+ months ago.

Total BSA assets was $1.4 billion total WITHOUT taking into consideration any other liabilities or claims

Total LC assets were around $4 billion total WITHOUT taking into consideration any other liabilities or claims

That meant that even in some magical math world where you could liquidate everything and not have to pay any other creditor, that was $5.4 billion divided out over 82,500 claimants or roughly $65,000 per claim (before insurance).

And even if you just limited it to those 24,308 with valid, timely claims that were not time-barred $5.4 billion / 24,308 = $222,000.

There was never a scenario here where BSA and the LCs were going to be able to put up "real money".

 

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10 minutes ago, Muttsy said:

The body language of the TCC people last night was unmistakable. The mediation has fully finally failed.

I disagree.  What they said, and it showed, was that they have been working hard on this, had hoped to say more, but because of mediation confidentiality had to wait a bit more before getting into details.  Failed mediation would have meant no agreement was near.  That wasn't the message.  At this point all parties have to wait for the BSA's filings.  The TCC said it hope that would be today but asked for patience.

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3 minutes ago, DavidLeeLambert said:

29203 were not found;

 

3 minutes ago, DavidLeeLambert said:

9621 were not found

Suggesting either

  1. Poor recording keeping by councils over the years/decades/century
  2. A lot of false claims
  3. Some combination of #1 and #2
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2 hours ago, ThenNow said:

If memory serves (big if), this means about 50,000 men are about to get b-slapped. This is not a proverbial poke, but a legitimate musing. How do open state guys feel about those in closed states being left with an Oliver Twist look on their faces? I’m sure a good many of the 50,000 have similar or more egregious abuse stories and will get precious little. Meanwhile, just over the boarder, someone with a “minor to moderately severe” claim will get a notable sum. Does that feel at all troubling? 

I dragged myself into this thing (against my better judgment) because BSA pledged to take care of victims.  The longer this progresses, the more it looks like any other corporate settlement and the less it looks like the needs of victims (particularly time-barred) will actually be addressed.  All this has done for me is rip open the sores so badly that I need additional counseling, which will likely be paid out of my pocket.  If this is the case, I do not see BSA standing behind its pledge and am not particularly concerned about its future.  And frankly, the less I hear about BSA the less salt rubs the wound.

Missouri has tried 3x and failed to remove the civil SoL.  I guess it could be worse.  I could live in Arkansas, where they recently amended the SoL to cover those up to age 55.  Like if you are 56 you life was not impacted.  That was more insensitive than just leaving the old SoL in place.

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15 minutes ago, CynicalScouter said:

Under the terms of the BSA reorg plan, those 58,150 claims will be reviewed by the Settlement Trustee and a claim amount assessed and that amount will then be reduced to 1%. So, a $750,000 claim will become $7,500.

One thing I want to point out is that with this and the $1,500 "nuisance" payouts. BSA is offering all 82,500 claimants a choice as part of the reorg

  1. "Expedited Distribution": Take $1,500 no questions asked to settle your claim.
  2. Go through the Settlement Trustee process where, for those 58,000+ people in non lookback states you are going to see only 1% of your claim approved.
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1 minute ago, Eagle1970 said:

I dragged myself into this thing (against my better judgment) because BSA pledged to take care of victims. 

Yes, but they also said consistent with maintaining scouting. There was never a scenario where BSA was going to be able to come up with billions of dollars here because it did not have billions of dollars to offer in the first place.

As for the time-barred, that is going to be a fight for the insurance companies. BSA has no control over them. If the insurance company doesn't want to pay out on a claim that is time-barred, BSA can't force or order the insurance company to do so.

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2 minutes ago, CynicalScouter said:

One thing I want to point out is that with this and the $1,500 "nuisance" payouts. BSA is offering all 82,500 claimants a choice as part of the reorg

  1. "Expedited Distribution": Take $1,500 no questions asked to settle your claim.
  2. Go through the Settlement Trustee process where, for those 58,000+ people in non lookback states you are going to see only 1% of your claim approved.

Which only serves to distress victims.  I wonder how the attorneys who ran all of the ads with dreams of large settlements are dealing with their clients?  Frankly, if that is the settlement, they can keep it.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Eagle1970 said:

If this is the case, I do not see BSA standing behind its pledge and am not particularly concerned about its future

So what exactly is it you wanted from BSA itself? It only has $1.4 billion in total assets (or had).

If BSA somehow completely liquidated itself and paid out to all 82,500 claimants (regardless of time-barred or not) that was only going to result in payments around $16900.

Edited by CynicalScouter
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Just now, CynicalScouter said:

So what exactly is it you wanted from BSA itself? It only has $1.4 billion in total assets (or had).

If BSA somehow completely liquidated itself and paid out to all 82,500 claimants (regardless of time-barred or not) that was only going to result in payments around $6600.

What exactly I want is for the insurers to pay out.

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3 minutes ago, Eagle1970 said:

Which only serves to distress victims.  I wonder how the attorneys who ran all of the ads with dreams of large settlements are dealing with their clients?

As of right now most victims don't know this yet.

And when they do, I suspect many of the lawyers involved will simply direct the client's anger at BSA and/or the judge ("We tried, but BSA and the judge did this.")

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