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Ronmass

Covid and Summer Camp 2020

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Pediatricians who've shut down their regular practice, will be ready to get on with making a living treating a high volume of patients ... annual physicals being a profitable exersize that could make up for lost revenue. I foresee a lot of extended hours for sports physicals, etc ..

 

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11 hours ago, yknot said:

I don't agree with either of those positions for medical reasons, but think about what you are suggesting from another angle: What kind of public relations do you think the bankrupt BSA would garner if it waived standard annual physical exam requirements in order to allow scouts to attend camp this summer and an asthmatic scout fell ill with COVID 19? It is not worth the risk of further damage to our reputation. 

 

 

Agree with you 100%.... Risk/Reward ..Just not worth it …. Imagine the local/national newspapers and the internet writing a story about one scout with a "cough" that was sent home...Ya want FAKE NEWS ?? It could be just a common cold …The news media will have a 'field day" with it

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On 4/6/2020 at 5:26 AM, qwazse said:

Pediatricians who've shut down their regular practice, will be ready to get on with making a living treating a high volume of patients ... annual physicals being a profitable exersize that could make up for lost revenue. I foresee a lot of extended hours for sports physicals, etc ..

 

But the problem for my kids right now is that their pediatrician has cancelled all of the scheduled physicals, this includes all camp and sports physicals, along with the annual "wellness" visits to limit possible exposure.  He said he's not planning on resuming those until some time in the summer.  When he does resume, it'll probably be long after any camp forms would have been due.  Also, at this point, I'm not looking to start doctor shopping either to find someone that would do that work.  I don't need the headache of filling out extra paperwork both with any new doctor or with the insurance.

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17 minutes ago, NDW5332 said:

But the problem for my kids right now is that their pediatrician has cancelled all of the scheduled physicals, this includes all camp and sports physicals, along with the annual "wellness" visits to limit possible exposure.  He said he's not planning on resuming those until some time in the summer.  When he does resume, it'll probably be long after any camp forms would have been due.  Also, at this point, I'm not looking to start doctor shopping either to find someone that would do that work.  I don't need the headache of filling out extra paperwork both with any new doctor or with the insurance.

My local CVS clinic is still doing physicals. I think it's a bad idea, but they were open, I have HSA money to spend, and as an Assistant Course Director for NYLT, if I'm not available we are not having camp if it's even possible. I jumped on the opportunity to get my physical done and out of the way. 

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Actually, if your doc's office is open (and you're asymptomatic and have have been well isolated ...), now is a great time to get a physical. The waiting rooms have never been so well cleaned, and there aren't a lot of other conditions to treat. (E.g., less work/sports injuries, less asthma without manufacturing and with flu season at an end, fewer communicable diseases ...)

A friend in Switzerland noticed the same thing.

An antibody test will be a game changer. If you had reported symptoms and your office is a testing site, you may get a call to come in for a test. At which point you can ask the doc if he/she can sign your physical paperwork.

When a vaccine clears safety and efficacy trials, expect your kid to get a call. It may be required for school admission, and that may include paperwork. A lost of docs will use that time to sell administer physicals.

On 4/6/2020 at 10:24 AM, Ronmass said:

Agree with you 100%.... Risk/Reward ..Just not worth it …. Imagine the local/national newspapers and the internet writing a story about one scout with a "cough" that was sent home...Ya want FAKE NEWS ?? It could be just a common cold …The news media will have a 'field day" with it

The nation could have just as bad a problem if herd immunity isn't established by fall because camps refused to open and allow a certain amount of background transmission. Camps have the advantage of rigorous contact tracing. If you participated in week #5, we know exactly who else was with you. If you stayed home, you could be transmitting a thousand-fold more untraceable contacts.

Frankly, the wisest public policy would be to require all youth to attend a camp for 3 weeks. It would be the best use of a half-trillion dollars the nation could ever spend. (It would have been better if we required it of all incoming travelers in February!) But, that's way beyond anyone's comprehension.

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2 hours ago, qwazse said:

Actually, if your doc's office is open (and you're asymptomatic and have have been well isolated ...), now is a great time to get a physical. The waiting rooms have never been so well cleaned, and there aren't a lot of other conditions to treat. (E.g., less work/sports injuries, less asthma without manufacturing and with flu season at an end, fewer communicable diseases ...)

A friend in Switzerland noticed the same thing.

An antibody test will be a game changer. If you had reported symptoms and your office is a testing site, you may get a call to come in for a test. At which point you can ask the doc if he/she can sign your physical paperwork.

When a vaccine clears safety and efficacy trials, expect your kid to get a call. It may be required for school admission, and that may include paperwork. A lost of docs will use that time to sell administer physicals.

The nation could have just as bad a problem if herd immunity isn't established by fall because camps refused to open and allow a certain amount of background transmission. Camps have the advantage of rigorous contact tracing. If you participated in week #5, we know exactly who else was with you. If you stayed home, you could be transmitting a thousand-fold more untraceable contacts.

Frankly, the wisest public policy would be to require all youth to attend a camp for 3 weeks. It would be the best use of a half-trillion dollars the nation could ever spend. (It would have been better if we required it of all incoming travelers in February!) But, that's way beyond anyone's comprehension.

Fed guidelines, at all levels of healthcare, are to delay any elective medical visits, surgery, etc.  In MA, step further, as part of the governors stay-at-home orders, elective procedures are required to be delayed until at least May 4th, or for as long as the order is in place.  My sons physical was rescheduled to late June, and his dental cleanings was rescheduled until June as well.

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qwaze, you are misunderstanding the concept of "herd immunity". 

The term arises from production animal medicine where producers want to minimize losses among livestock for economic reasons. It is generally achieved via vaccination. Producers do not want the kind of herd immunity process through contagion that you describe because that creates unsustainable economic losses. That is why producers are sometimes required to destroy entire herds or flocks to minimize the spread. We don't do the equivalent of that with humans for obvious reasons. In the scheme of things, recreational kid activities this summer should be pretty low down on the priority list. For starters, the workplace needs to get a lot safer for essential workers. Then we can start thinking about phasing in other aspects of daily life and the economy. Some of the models out today are talking about measures being in place until August so we'll see what happens. 
 

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1 hour ago, yknot said:

qwaze, you are misunderstanding the concept of "herd immunity". 

The term arises from production animal medicine where producers want to minimize losses among livestock for economic reasons. It is generally achieved via vaccination. Producers do not want the kind of herd immunity process through contagion that you describe because that creates unsustainable economic losses. That is why producers are sometimes required to destroy entire herds or flocks to minimize the spread. We don't do the equivalent of that with humans for obvious reasons. In the scheme of things, recreational kid activities this summer should be pretty low down on the priority list. For starters, the workplace needs to get a lot safer for essential workers. Then we can start thinking about phasing in other aspects of daily life and the economy. Some of the models out today are talking about measures being in place until August so we'll see what happens. 
 

Agreed. We don't want to let everybody back out at once with no restrictions, We'll just have a no "peak infections" a few months from now. Look to China as an example. One, their infection and death rate is definitely higher than reported, and while some activities have resumed, they are still not doing mass events like sporting events. 

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5 hours ago, yknot said:

qwaze, you are misunderstanding the concept of "herd immunity". 

The term arises from production animal medicine where producers want to minimize losses among livestock for economic reasons. It is generally achieved via vaccination. Producers do not want the kind of herd immunity process through contagion that you describe because that creates unsustainable economic losses. ....

Just taking plays from the CDC's handbook ...

Quote

Community immunity: A situation in which a sufficient proportion of a population is immune to an infectious disease (through vaccination and/or prior illness) to make its spread from person to person unlikely. Even individuals not vaccinated (such as newborns and those with chronic illnesses) are offered some protection because the disease has little opportunity to spread within the community. Also known as herd immunity.

Natural herd immunity is undesirable because of its mortality rates. It's also uncertain. We don't know how it will hold up during round two, or three ... current antibody tests for past Saars-Cov-2 are not accurate enough to let us know about how resilient people are against a second infection. This is all that is available at round one. That will change if the current tests are accurate, then there will be estimates on how long a body will remain 'on the lookout' for new infections of this strain.

Artificial herd immunity, if it is proven to not be as lethal as the original disease, is only as reliable as antibody tests. The real problem (which nobody cares much about in livestock) is autoimmune side effects. If they are few, then we can afford to pay for the care for the claims of damage from the vaccine. If they are many, we will be back to relying on natural herd immunity because people will refuse the vaccine.

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Agreed. You are making my point for me, qwazse. For all those reasons cited there is no point to rush back into activities that are not essential. We need a measured WWII mentality. We are in this for the long haul and need to do all the right and prudent things as best we can determine. This will be our version of rationing, national discretion -- not in what we say but in what we do -- and sacrifice of some of the things we'd normally like to be enjoying. Our doctors, nurses, and medical researchers are in the middle of something like a Manhattan Project right now. We need to do our best to help them by not adding to the problem. IMHO.

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Actually, Harvard agrees with @qwazse.  Even Dr. Fauci talked about opening up summer camps yesterday (depending on the rate in May).

Depending on seasonality, the models show that social distancing occurring between 25 percent and 75 percent of the time would both build immunity and keep the health care system from overloading. As time passes and more of the population gains immunity, they said, the restrictive episodes could be shorter, with longer intervals between them.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/03/how-to-prevent-overwhelming-hospitals-and-build-immunity/

 

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What that article references is lockdown type policy as used in China- where people were not allowed out of their homes for any reason, no roaming the city, all businesses shut down as it had been in Wuhan for 73 days, etc.  That is not what is being done in MA or NY currently.  We are at about the 25% mark here in MA under the current executive orders, and we have field hospitals that have been set up in the DCU Center Worcester and the Boston Convention Center, and two others are up and running or will be this week.  Hospitals are like warzones here now, and we have not peaked.  My employer just gave us notice today that business travel and face-to-face meetings of groups larger than 10 are suspended (and can only be held in locations that would allow for appropriate 6 foot social distancing of all participants) for the remainder of 2020 nationally.   

The one thing that Fauci said that seemed contradictory, was that he has revised his outlook on the #s of those who would be carriers but otherwise asymptomatic.  He initially felt less than 20%, but now believes it could be as high as 50% (and the population that would make up the vast bulk of that number, are those aged 8-18).  The reality is we are only just learning about this virus, and what we know changes by the day.

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Eagle 1993, that's not what Dr. Fauci said. He said he is hopeful schools can reopen in the fall but I think was pretty clear that summer camps are in question and would depend on how things unfold.

The Harvard article is 10 days old and is already out of date. Some kind of staged return to a new normal will need to take place, and yes that will likely result in some new exposures and deaths, but we have to have measures in place to keep that minimal. If you read the article carefully, and if you listen to Dr. Fauci, any kind of return is predicated on having a number of things in place that we do not currently have.
 

 

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2 hours ago, yknot said:

Eagle 1993, that's not what Dr. Fauci said. He said he is hopeful schools can reopen in the fall but I think was pretty clear that summer camps are in question and would depend on how things unfold.

The Harvard article is 10 days old and is already out of date. Some kind of staged return to a new normal will need to take place, and yes that will likely result in some new exposures and deaths, but we have to have measures in place to keep that minimal. If you read the article carefully, and if you listen to Dr. Fauci, any kind of return is predicated on having a number of things in place that we do not currently have.
 

 

Its early April.  I expect by end of May (7 weeks from now) we will have many of those things in place.  Perhaps not in all states, but enough that will allow many summer camps to run.  I could see those camps limit participants to only scouts from the state or within a limited range … but I would be surprised if 100% of camps are closed all summer.  I would also expect dates in July and August are more likely to operate than June.

I actually believe high adventure is a bigger risk.  That brings in scouts throughout the country, including mixing scouts between high and low covid-19 areas.  That seems to be a much bigger risk than having scouts within a specific region go to summer camp.

 

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