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Cburkhardt

Scouts BSA Up 1.2% Youth Members, up 7.1% Units

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My district numbers are +1 for number of units (2 girl troops added, one crew lost) and -11% membership as of last week.  We'll lose 2 packs and 2 troops with the LDS departure at the end of the month.

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6 hours ago, Cburkhardt said:

.... If we continue to grow female Scouts BSA units and all youth at the current rate and retain 5% of our current LDS youth members, we could replace the losses within 1.5 to 2 years and return to net growth in this program.  ...

Just to de-fuzz the math, remember that to break even from a ten percent a ten percent loss, one needs a subsequent eleven percent gain.

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To be fair though.  The LDS loss is not indicative of anything about the program.  That we're up 1% in membership is 1000 times more important to the longevity of the BSA than a 10% drop due to their departure.

I say this not to demean the LDS church - not at all.  They made a strategic decision to part ways and that is their right.  That we nationwide are seeing growth exclusive of that loss is very, very promising.

Thanks for sharing the news @Cburkhardt!

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None of you took-up my challenge and made your own membership predictions with support.  I believe that new growth at this point shows that the female additions to our program are having a great impact on our membership and I further believe this will ultimately more than offset the recent and near-future departures.  There is no math to "de-fuzz".  We will lose a significant percentage and absolute number at the turn of the year from the LDS departures and there will be doomsayers predicting our demise as a result.  But, this will all be offset. Four years from now I predict we will have 35% female presence in Scouts BSA and will be net bigger than we are now.  These are not careless predictions.  They are based on my close observation as a Scoutmaster of a 30-girl Troop regarding how youth and leaders have embraced the all-girl Troop roll-out.  This is going to work very well and 

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I don't make predictions based on interim stats. We have another thread about a non-LDS unit shrinking below 5. How long will the DE let it stay at 3? How long after the unit says it's not turning in another charter before it's not on he books.

When my crew disbanded, I let my DE know two months in advance to not expect a charter from us. It wasn't until late Februrary that he sent me the red form. I have no idea if that -1 was reflected in last year's stats or not. I'd like to think it would be in your interim counts by now.

Maybe you haven't seen much obfuscation in DC. But, from what little I've seen, I know it can happen.  It's a big country.

The one good thing about the current YPT is that it forces a more solid head count. So we have a better chance at precision than in past decades.

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18 hours ago, TAHAWK said:

I hope you're correct, among other thing for which I hope.

I too hope @Cburkhardt is correct, but to quote many characters in my favorite movie franchise, "I have a bad feeling about this."

I'm a former pro, and know that units can still be listed as "active" up to 2 months afters the expiration of recharter, unless things have changed since I was a DE. That is because there are sometimes paperwork issues with the recharters, and other times the staff get overwhelmed with the process. I vividly remember the Scout office being "closed" for Christmas, yet all hands were in the office working on recharters. Everyone able to process recharters was on a computer doing so, and the rest of us was doing whatever it took to support them. We were lucky, we were able to get every charter either processed, or fully prepared and paperwork issues resolved on Dec. 23rd, otherwise we would have been in on the 24th working. And even with all the work prepared and ready for processing, it still took about 14-21 days after December 31st to enter everything into the system. And I know of a few cases where it has taken longer.

 

So I believe the April Stats will be giving us a more accurate view since some councils use a January 31st recharter date instead of a December 31st date. 

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25 minutes ago, qwazse said:

The one good thing about the current YPT is that it forces a more solid head count. So we have a better chance at precision than in past decades.

What do you mean? 

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On 12/11/2019 at 4:31 PM, Cburkhardt said:

Membership numbers are out and reflect continued growth for the Scouts BSA program.  End of November 2019 is +1.2% for youth Scouts and up 7.1% for units, in comparison to end of November 2018.  This certainly reflects the influx of female Scouts and LDS departures.  The figures that will count will be year-end figures, as that is when the LDS relationship officially ends.  After the LDS departures take effect, I'm thinking we will have a 10% Scouts BSA youth membership drop (comparing 2019 year-end with 2018 year-end).  If we continue to grow female Scouts BSA units and all youth at the current rate and retain 5% of our current LDS youth members, we could replace the losses within 1.5 to 2 years and return to net growth in this program.  Given the challenges we have faced in recent months and years, this is better than I expected.  What is your prediction?  Please explain your opinion with reasoning and facts.

Are you looking at the numbers for the year as compared to last year (November 18 vs November 19) or are you looking at Jan 2019 vs November 2019?  The reason I ask is that BSA does not adjust any numbers out for crossovers or age outs until recharter at the end of the year.

For example, if you have a pack of 45 and 10 Webelos crossover in March and you add 10 at School night, BSA will indicate 55 in the pack, while the pack (correctly) would say they were at 45.  Those 10 Webelos would now be also showing in the Scout troop they crossed over to in March

That troop that had 50 Scouts and 10 aged out while they added 10 new crossovers would show as 60 on the books, operationally the unit leader would say they had 50

Real indication will be the annual report for 2019 which will be reflective of the recharters actual numbers, units not rechartering, and importantly the 20% loss (+/-) from the LDS departure.

2018 Annual Report numbers

  • Cubs - 1,231,831
  • Scouts - 789,784
  • Ventures / Sea Scouts - 55,101
  • Explorers - 109,613
  • TOTAL - 2,186,329

2019 PREDICTIONS

  • Cubs - 1,108,648
  • Scouts - 631,827
  • Ventures / Sea Scouts - 52,345
  • Explorers - 98,652
  • TOTAL - 1,891,472

Drop of 13.5%

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5 hours ago, Sentinel947 said:

What do you mean? 

@Sentinel947, previously, it was easy enough to keep a bunch of scouters and scouts on the rolls by turning in a charter with a reasonably small check. It didn't matter if they actually did anything to confirm their desire to be on the rolls. Now half of unit leadership is at risk of being dropped if YPT lapses. Within two years of leaders doing nothing a charter will not be renewable.

On top of that, background checks have added to registration costs, so it's maybe 10 times as expensive to register. Some the increase has do with more than the imprative of modern YP,  but it still contributes to a disincentive to keep a unit on the books longer than necessary.

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From Annual Reports on BSA web site:

image.png.4cb47beb15068511cea9577b2a9645ea.png

Basis trend of above... My estimate, really hope, is that after further LDS subtraction of about 15-25% male membership in Cubs and Scouts BSA is nearing its' "plateau" of boy membership.  I am aware of nothing that may increase boy membership significantly.  This includes USA population growth because Census data projects nil increase of 10-14 year old males during 2016-2020-2025.  https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/popproj/2017-summary-tables.html

(FYI...  Census reports 31,751,000 male population between 5 & 19 years old for 2016.)

Increase due to girls in Cubs and Scouts BSA...??? Need more info for prediction which I cannot find on the internet.   Can anyone provide current & detailed membership data and market research for girl membership? 

 

 

image.png

Edited by Wëlënakwsu
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