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BS-87

The Race to 2012 - GOP Primaries

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I figured I'd be the first to say something here as the season for speculation begins. And use this thread in the future to talk about the front-runners, dark horses, and issues.

 

Just to start off on the right foot, I feel it prudent to share what my thoughts are on what we're going to start seeing in the next few months with guys starting to throw their hats in the ring.

 

What I'm hoping to see is a strong showing from seven main contenders; Romney, Daniels, Palin, Huckabee, Paul, Gingrich, and Pawlenty. How do you feel about that list?

 

As the warning, I'm a Tea Party backer and believe any of these candidates that run are going to have to prove to the voter base that they've either always shown or have adopted now a more libertarian/conservative stance. Who this naturally favors is the Tea Party founder, Ron Paul, who now being a Fox News regular has become part of the mainstream media machine that put him down so much in 2007.

 

Your thoughts?

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Except for Romney the rest of your list would prove to be an economic and political disaster for the country that would take a decade or more to recover from, yes even worse than GW was.

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BS-87, I wish it were not yet time to even think about this yet.

 

BadenP, why do you think that?

 

sherminator505, that is easy to guess, what is much harder is why you posted in the thread at all.

 

 

 

I don't think any of the has beens will be a good choice for 2012. In my book Romney, Palin, Huckabee, Paul, and Gingrich qualify as has beens and also rans. Mitch Daniels has done some pretty good work in Indiana, and he knows the federal budget inside and out after his stint in the White House under GW Bush. I don't know if he has national appeal or not, and it is inevitable the media are saving some dirt on him in case of a national run that hasn't come out in the state races. As to Pawlenty, I have no idea. There are plenty of GOP Presidents who made multiple tries before winning the nomination and then the Presidency, but I don't see that as likely this time around.

 

Things to watch for in 2012 are Democratic challengers to Obama. Will anyone try to unseat him from within the party? The left wing certainly isn't happy with him nor or the few remaining conservative democrats. Or will there be any serious third party candidates? It is easy to imagine a moderate D running as a third party and hamstringing Obama, or some other moderate running a big third party campaign and doing a Perot and keeping the GOP from a victory.

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A third party run from the left might undermine Obama in 2012. But frankly, the left has enough trouble rallying behind their own candidate and I doubt they could even field a 3rd party candidate.

Any third party challenge will come from the right, way right and siphon off votes from any candidate who has enough appeal to cross the divide to independants. That alone assures Obama another term.

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I believe the mid-term votes and the change of command in the HOR show the will of the people isn't behind the previous two years. If the right doesn't go through with a promised vote to repeal the healthcare bill, though, the will of the people my shift back to the other side.

 

I'll be able to give a more informed opinion on the aforementioned topic when I see who will actually declare a run in the primaries. Until then it's all purely speculation.

 

Now as far as to what side of the fence I am leaning on is up to each one's imagination. But I'll give you a little hint. It's not the right and it's not the left.

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Unfortunately it's all still speculative. But we should see answers coming in the next few weeks. To the seven I mentioned and five more invites were sent to the first Iowa forum on March 7th. This means anyone serious on running needs to be there...

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After the last presidential election process I heard a good deal clamoring about ways to fix a broken system. First Iowa, then New Hampshire and others and before more than 10% of the nation's have had a chance to vote the field gets pretty well winnowed down pretty good, what a horrible system. Then again we all talk about how bad it is, and then stop and start talking how bad it is the next time

 

A few years back my sister in law lived in dire fear and dread that Hillary Clinton would be president. She was sick that "That Dreadful woman" would become president. She couln't imagine anything worse. Oddly enough she is a strident Sarah Palin fan although I have no idea why

 

The Front runners rarely win the nomination

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"The front runners rarely win the nomination."

 

That's good news for the man with the plan, Dr. Paul. I can understand why his stance on some issues aren't as appealing to some, but the problem is that he's not given a serious chance by anyone. This is largely because most politicians calculate their answers to ultimately say nothing that'd nail their feet to the floor, whereas Paul just talks and talks about all the things that need to change. If he were wrong, this would be a problem, but he's actually accurately predicted most of our economic woes and has been saying for years what's coming soon. If he happens to be right, Fox News will have a new love, as the man they've been interviewing daily for his doomsday predictions will have been right. For this reason he's often seen as a dark horse who could explode as a presidential candidate if the debt ceiling crisis hits over the next year.

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Anyone note the mention that Bachman is talking about running now? Likely won't actually happen; but cannot believe she even would talk about it. JMO

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I think disaffected liberal Democrats will do what disaffected conservative Republicans largely did not do in 2010 - hold their nose and vote for the incumbent.

 

There will be no primary challenge to Obama, because the Democrats will realize that, warts and all, a sitting president is a far better candidate to fend off what they see as the worst of the Tea Party movement. The idea of President Palin, et al, scares the bejeezus out of liberals. They will unite, albeit perhaps grudgingly.

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The idea of a President Palin is enough to scare the bejeebus out of anyone. She's perfectly competent, just lacks relevant experience and has gained a poor public reputation despite her venture into reality tv.

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"The idea of President Palin, et al, scares the bejeezus out of liberals. "

 

So true, but the idea of Presidential candidate Palin makes them smile. Head to head virtually every pole shows Obama beating Palin by double digits. Granted, it's still early and anything could happen.

 

SA

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The Palin's Alaska I think does a good thing for Alaska, and shows Palin to be a rather normal sort of person, but the truth is it makes her out to be entirely too ordinary. I think it reveals far too much of "warts and all" of Palin and her household. Nothing about it makes her seem presidential, though it certainly makes her appealing for certain other roles, such as spokesperson for Alaska tourism, or outdoor activity, or even some sort of every-mom type thing.

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