MYCVAStory

14 hours ago, PaleRider said:

www.bsarestructering.org

I think this is the specific link: https://www.bsarestructuring.org/estimated-potential-payment-calculator/

BUT.....BUT.....this does NOT take into account any scaling factors that would increase or decrease awards and assumes that all claims can be funded at 100%.  It's merely a simplified way to look at the matrix and apply it to open and closed States.  I fear that this calculator and others that law firms have posted are setting expectations that are best guesses or worse, at best.  The only way to truly get an idea of a claim "value" is to do a deep dive into Article VII (I believe), the TDP portion,  in the plan.  There's also a 50-minute video on the TCC site discussing this.

Just saw this Town Hall notice on the TCC website.  Interesting, the TCC and Coalition doing it together.  Some day this is going to make for a really boring book or a drama-filled miniseries.

TOWN HALL: The Official Committee of Tort Claimants’ and the Coalition of Abused Scouts for Justice will hold a Town Hall Meeting on April 4, 2023 at 8:00 p.m. (ET). 

Zoom: https://pszjlaw.zoom.us/j/85281284960  (no registration required)

One-Tap Mobile: +16694449171,,85281284960#

Dial-In by Telephone: 1-888-788-009 (toll-free), Webinar ID:  852 8128 4960. 
If asked for a “Participant ID,” just press #

28 minutes ago, Eagle1993 said:

I think it is too early to know if it is fully funded.  However, I'd recommend getting in early as possible.

The plan calls for a "first in, first out" FIFO process.  BUT, that won't impact the amount of your award or how much you get.  The Trust will start processing claims and making some portion of award with an eye to making sure enough is available over time.  At the same time they'll be negotiating/suing non-settling insurers for additional monies.  Survivors can expect multiple distributions of checks as monies are available.  Take a look at the Madoff Bankruptcy.  While extreme, that Trust is up to its 14th distribution to some creditors: https://www.madofftrustee.com/distributions-16.html

Let's hope the Trust has the right transparency and communication so Survivors have the right expectations as time passes.

3 hours ago, clbkbx said:

"Payment in full... uncontroverted evidence" to "no clear error" that it will "likely provide for payment in full" in three sentences.

I've posted this analysis before but... if you take the at least reasonable claims (no invalid votes, has to show a council) from the last vote (approx 43,000 claims), arrange them by claimed class, multiply by the matrix base (no scaling up or down) and weight by the SOL... the amount is $9.4B. Happy to share this or hear any feedback on the method. 

The Plan says that the "Trust Distribution Procedures’ Claims Matrix, Base Matrix Values, Maximum Matrix Values, and Scaling Factors.., are appropriate and provide for a fair and equitable settlement of Abuse Claims based on the evidentiary record offered to the Bankruptcy Court as required..."

So the Trustee is going to have to find 75+% fraudulent claims, scale down every claim or (as I think most likely) not pay any where near the full value of the claims. I hope I'm wrong!

It's going to be fascinating to see how this shakes out.  A lot of focus, and rightfully so, is on the numerator; how much money is needed NOW.  Well, the other side of this is the denominator; the number of Survivors that complete the questionnaire to get an award and the number that are credible.  Some number less than 82,500 will be the denominator.  How many have given up or won't go to the hassle of completing the questionnaire?  How many will provide a convincing argument to support their claim?  What will appropriate support be in the eyes of the Trust?  Surely this will be more than listing a Council.  How many more States will reform their SOLs before the process is over?  That too impacts distributions.  All of that is why the Trust will hire an economist to work on the forecasting and financial advisors to make the money stretch the furthest.

5 hours ago, Eagle1970 said:

While I understand it will take years to deal with non-settling insurers and other contributors, if they get out the initial payments that would be amazing.

There will be significant work on a questionnaire to allow for claim processing and award designation.  This will include input from the STAC and experts in mass tort claims as well as experts in assessing sexual abuse.  The claim form was a first step.  The next step will be to "get in line."  Even the $3500 payment will require some degree of review to make sure there's enough credibility.  There's a whole group of people out there who try to jump on every class action process just to see if no one's checking too closely.  The $3500 requirement won't be extensive but it'll also require/remind claimants that it's a crime to lie about this.  I know....potentially asking liars to say they aren't lying.  Bottom line is that Survivors should be getting prepared to at some point make their best case and provide as much support as possible on the questionnaire.  This is their "day in court."

6 hours ago, Eagle1970 said:

Not to pin you down or anything.... But are you indicating there is a possibility this could wrap up this year??

As another said, it depends on "wrap-up."  The immediate concern for Survivors and the BSA is getting the plan to the point where it "goes effective."  Then, the BSA  follows the plan monetary and non-monetary agreements, Trust moves ahead, entities start paying the money they owe, and legal action against non-settling insurers may commence.  So the plan becoming effective can happen in a couple months, maybe less, but a LOT has to do with what the objectors do to prevent that.  Full wrap-up, as in when the money is all gone and Trust dissolved.....well, remember that there will still be a "future Claims representative" for a very long time, and lawsuits against non-settling insurers complete with all that legal machination....it'll be years and years.

Mods.....Might be the right time to start a new topic such as "Post-District Court Affirmation"  or similar?

Another question is how long until the plan goes effective and what needs to happen before then.  A bankruptcy pro I spoke to today dumbed it down for me in a way I understood.  This is a lot like closing on your house.  You agree on a deal but now there's the sausage-making.  You need an appraisal, insurance, termite inspection, flood certification, mortgage approval, title search....and set a closing date for a month or two down the road hoping you can get it all done by then.  That's where we are.  The Trustee needs to have in place all the infrastructure to start this "not-so-small business.  That includes bank accounts, insurance, some professionals retained, and other parts of the backbone.  There's also a promissory note as part of this on the BSA/LC end I believe that needs to be finalized.  So, all of that gets put in place before the debtor says "Judge, here's the motion and proof showing we're good to go effective.  Release the Kraken" (Kraken part is mine.  I'm not so sure there's Latin for Kraken."  This is "scrambling the egg" in bankruptcy terms to get things going as quickly as possible so possible appeal avenues feel the pressure of the impracticality of "unscrambling the egg."  How long, a month or two if we're lucky and not massive impediments.  Objectors, especially the insurers, will try to hold this up because that's what they do.  But reading the District Court opinion it really puts the objectors on their heels and affirms strongly Judge Silverstein's opinion.  Objectors look for small cracks to wedge themselves into.  None were provided and while there's still battles ahead, for now Survivors who want this to move along should consider today at least a very good day.  Tomorrow....that might be another story!  Take victories where you can find them.

3 hours ago, vol_scouter said:

Slam!

History fans are going to have a field day with this bankruptcy in hindsight.  In the case of the TCC estimate, it was both early on in the bankruptcy and included expectations for all insurers and SOL relief.  It should have been as high as possible at that point.  Should it be higher now?  Sure, but time will tell what percentage claims will be paid in the end.  As well, it's important not to cherry-pick statements as the objectors did.  The TCC didn't provide any expert testimony/evidence related to valuation at the plan confirmation hearing for one simple reason, the BSA, which the TCC and Coalition joined as plan supporters, provided it.   The Judge also cited the expert opinion of Bates as convincing so that move was the right one. The TCC at the beginning of the process and when it objected to the first plan did its analysis then as objectors.  Without it there would have been no valid basis to object and apply the needed pressure for increased LC or insurer contribution.  When you become supporters you toss aside that which no longer serves you. 

And the answer to what happens next.... Fist let's see how long it takes the insurers to file a stay.

8 minutes ago, Eagle1993 said:

Any guess as to when District will come back?  It seems like we should be prepared for months, but not sure what the typical response time would be.

It's really anyone's guess.  The judge at the end of the hearing did acknowledge that he knew people were really waiting for a decision so that's a good thing.  Some have suggested that he might want to wait for other decisions but that isn't normal behavior for District Court Judges in this situation.  So....while no one in Wilmington expected the wait to be Silverstein-lengthy it's still hurry up and wait.  It'll be six weeks on Thursday.

If you had "Positive Covid Test" in the pool for the next reason why things will be delayed, you won.  Thursday's hearing has been postponed until April, the 19th I think, because Judge Silverstein has Covid.   In all fairness, this is unrelated to the wait for the District Court decision but related to the Coalition's Substantial Contribution claim hearing in the morning and the hearing in the afternoon to get the Trust "seed funding" so some operations can start.  Another month.... 

2 hours ago, Eagle1993 said:

Will this form apply to the $3500 quick payout option?  I'm curious how that will be handled.

To be determined.  There is a part of our population that will "sign up" for any mass claim action.  It's sad: https://topclassactions.com/ Anyway, what the Trust will do to address this is TBD but at some point it has to decide how long it'll work on each $3500 before it isn't cost effective.

9 hours ago, PaleRider said:

What does questionnaire construction mean? 

The claim form was only to make a claim and allowed the debtor to get a better picture of where the abuse occurred, severity, etc.  In mass tort bankruptcy Trusts there will be a questionnaire that will ask for a ton more detail, any medical records, evidence, etc.  The trust will need to hire professionals with experience in developing this form for sexual assault, then retain professionals to process all of them and wade through the materials....  It's going to be difficult for many Survivors but the closest comparison would be the discovery phase of a trial.  Hopefully the Trust will communicate well with Survivors on instructions and processes.  If a Survivor retained an attorney they are going to find out quickly how much help that attorney is going to be.  Remember as well that Judge Silverstein dictated that she needs to approve the fraud prevention steps the trust will follow.  Be on the lookout for attorneys who scream "we need to get money into the hands of Survivors as quickly as possible."  If I'm getting 40% then I'd want the same.  If you're a Survivor you want awards going to CREDIBLE claims.  The tricky part for the Trust, and why the questionnaire is the first critical step is because at some point it's going to take too long and cost too much money to validate a claim.  The Trust needs to balance speed and validation.  Sorry, probably more than just an answer to what questionnaire construction is.

2 hours ago, Eagle1993 said:

I think this might also be a sign that BSA is assuming district will confirm the plan.  With the announcement of Mosby's retirement, start of the trust ... I believe BSA has decided to start implementing their exit strategy.

Just to be clear, the only thing being proposed to the court is the start of the "administrative side" of the Trust.  This is so that Judge Houser can start working (she has already accrued hours) and start to put in place the professionals that will provide the infrastructure for claims management, questionnaire construction, money management, independent review and all the rest.  There will still be significant delays but at least if the plan and Trust go active at some point then some legwork will have given it a bit of a head start.

11 hours ago, johnsch322 said:

Advance funding for getting settlement trust started.

a8b7ab66-3106-4bdc-ad71-9e2a56280983_11010.pdf (omniagentsolutions.com)

Clif notes.....

BSA is trying to start scrambling the egg so that the certain insurers and other objectors can say "Look court/judge, this is up and operating and the prep is underway so that awards can be made when the Trust is funded.  Can't unscramble the egg now"  That's important pressure and VERY good news for Survivors because if this doesn't get dragged out the time-to-awards will be shortened compared to everything administrative waiting for a start when all appeals have run out.  Interesting.....motion is for BSA to contribute 1 million dollars and TCC's attorneys PSZJ to contribute 2.9 to 3.2 million.  The PSZJ money is coming from the 10% of its fees it pledged at the start of the Bankruptcy to go to the Trust and has been kept in escrow until now.  Oh, and the Coalition's attorneys Brown-Rudnick....support for this motion but NO financial contribution.  What a shame.  Their hearing to receive a 25 million dollar "substantial contribution" from the BSA was pushed to March.  Seems like a missed opportunity to pledge 2.5 million and show the Judge its level of commitment and contribution.  You know, you always find out who your friends are when the check comes and it's time to split it.  The people who really care about you always reach for their wallets.  The others see the check approaching and head for the bathroom.

13 minutes ago, Eagle1970 said:

I'm right with you.  But I also need to focus on what might be, so that I face no further disappointment on this matter.

There's a lot to be said about that approach.  When so much is unpredictable it's good to avoid surprise and sometimes it works as well to expect the worst and be pleased when that doesn't happen!  Hang in there.

The substantial contribution hearing to address the Coalition, Pfau/Zalkin and Catholic requests to have their bills paid by the BSA has been rescheduled to 3/23:

Docket Text:
Notice of Hearing /Re-Notice of Motion of the Coalition of Abused Scouts for Justice for Entry of an Order Approving the Debtors' Proposed Payment of the Coalition Restructuring Expenses (related document(s)[10808]) Filed by Coalition of Abused Scouts for Justice. Hearing scheduled for 3/23/2023 at 10:00 AM at US Bankruptcy Court, 824 Market St., 6th Fl., Courtroom #2, Wilmington, Delaware. Objections due by 1/12/2023.

43 minutes ago, Eagle1970 said:

I agree this could drag out.  Though I hope (for the sake of survivors who are aging by the day) I am proven wrong.

Agreed 100%.  But, Survivors still need to be thinking in year(s) unfortunately.  For some that means their Estates will receive awards instead of them.  That's tragedy heaped upon tragedy and yet another reason why Bankruptcy court is the WORST place for so many Survivors.  There will be reason for some optimism at some point but history will not judge this whole episode as a good one for Survivors.

10 hours ago, PaleRider said:

I am hopeful by March we may see the approval of the plan by District Court.  I believe further appeals can happen after that, but from what I understand, the plan wouldg start being implemented after district court and appeals could quickly become moot.

The District court decision could be stayed by the court if the insurers fight for the stay, and they probably would get it based upon precedence, so it could go to Circuit court review.  A wait for Circuit Court could be....a year if that's what it wants or it knows an issue will come up in the Supreme Court in the meantime.  The Trust could be funded but only for "startup" costs so that key personnel can start work on procedures in anticipation of real funding.  Expect that to occur so that the Trust can say to the Court "Look, we're all ready to go and the Trust is working as designed."  I'd like to be all kinds of optimistic here but the reality is that the non-settling insurers have EVERY reason to hold this up as long as possible.  Well, billions of reasons at least.

Friday afternoon at District Court....

This was the Guam Show with Lujan chasing a number of issues.  It was painful to watch at times as one thing after another was thrown against the all to see if anything stuck.  The gist of the objecting argument was that Guam's Survivors deserved different treatment than the plan allowed based on a series of factors both unique and not so.  The arguments really highlighted the fact that in bankruptcy claimants, like Survivors, become a "class" and lose individual treatment that was enjoyed pre-bankruptcy.  As well, the Judge also highlighted his role in determining whether the bankruptcy court erred in applying the law when he said to Lujan "To say the bankruptcy was wrong I'd have to find that she (Silverstein) was clearly erroneous."  He was basically saying "You might not like the plan, it might have your clients losing some opportunities they had pre-bankruptcy, but if it follows the bankruptcy code it's good enough."  Luria did a good job of demonstrating why the Guam arguments didn't apply and after Lujan complained that the plan was changed after her clients voted on it Luria put the smackdown on by highlighting the number of Guam claimants and saying "If Lujan's clients don't like the plan now we'll accept their votes changed to 'NO'.....that won't change the vote outcome!"  Luria had enough and reminded the Court that it's been three years, $250 mil spent and time to get on with it.  The Judge stayed patient but that wore off and at the end put his hand up to interrupt Lujan when her agreed upon time had run out and said "I think we're done."  Judging from the number of attorneys in the gallery who spent the two hours on their phones it was easy to feel that the afternoon's objections went nowhere.

A bright spot for Survivors was at the end of the agenda.  The Judge acknowledged that he knew people were waiting for some resolution and he commented that the decision was "...going to take some time", and then there was a long pause while the gallery waited for him to say how long that might be, and then to some laughter he said "In the meantime I guess you'll have to wait."  Still, it was obvious that he's aware people want a decision.

So, enjoy the wait.

8 hours ago, Eagle1993 said:

I do wonder what would happen if Purdue Pharma appeal kills the releases.  I know it is another circuit, but there is a ton of attention and change with respect to non debtor releases.  If an appeal court rejects them (Purdue had more support in terms of votes than BSA) then I wonder if either the District Court or 3rd Circuit appeals puts the breaks on the BSA plan.

I would expect plan supporters are probably hoping that either a ruling comes out backing Purdue Pharma OR the ruling is delayed until BSA has district approval and starts implementing their plan.

Couple things.....

Consensus is that Third Party Releases in Districts that allow them won't be negatively impacted until the Supreme Court weighs in.  Districts and Circuits like to follow their own precedent until instructed otherwise.

Sorry, to say, if the plan gets District Approval then look for the certain insurers to move for a stay, quickly, while this waits for Circuit appeal.  The plan could still be funded with a few million but this would only allow the Trustee to start some infrastructure and prepare for the significant funding someday.  That's a good thing until there's money to be awarded but that award money wouldn't go out the door until significant funding.   BSA, Methodists, settling insurers could fund the Trust prior to a Third Circuit appeal but they'd do so at a risk that the plan could be tossed.

District Court this morning.....

This was the main event.  Focus was on subject matter jurisdiction and third-party releases.  Luria, Anker, and Mason on one side, Lujan and Dumas on the other.  For every point made by one side there was a counter-point.  Like yesterday the Judge seemed to have a very good grasp on the issues and a lot of focus was not on whether this was the best plan (that was for Judge Silverstein to be more concerned with) but whether it conformed to the law.  The proponents were well prepared and while the objectors less so they did a good job making their points when they weren't going off on a tangent.  Whereas yesterday it was easy to determine that the insurers didn't make any headway, it appeared like the fleet of lawyers present today in the gallery couldn't smile or frown afterward.  Everyone knew that these issues are political and realistic hot potatoes right now.  I did get the sense from his questions that the Judge was looking for an avenue to feel good about the scope of the releases and asked some questions to make sure they didn't extend to non-scouting abuse in some cases.  But, the Judge pointed out that the number of releases to COs exceeded the number of claimants!   I was taking notes furiously, and reviewing them, at the end of the day I think most people didn't get a comfortable take on where the Judge stood.  At the most, there didn't appear to be any "ah-hah" moments where a flaw in Silverstein's ruling was laid bare.  Yesterday was a slam-dunk for the plan proponents.  Today was a boxing match where you waited for a knockout punch but at round's end both sides just went to their corners.  This would suggest that the Judge, knowing this is headed to the Circuit on Appeal where the court is more aggressive, might be inclined to say "It isn't perfect but if it was good enough for Judge Silverstein, it's good enough for me."

This afternoon will be automatic stay, insurance, and best interest.  It appears that the judge has about heard enough and expectations are, from the time allotted, that this afternoon will be short.  No one's guessing how long it'll be before a decision is entered but the fact that this was heard before most people expected is being taken that the wait might not be unexpectedly long as it was with Judge Silverstein.