I wondered if "families will be the charter organization" but I did not expand on that thought. I think CO's will be replaced by hands-off sponsors who provide a meeting space and possibly storage. Our current CO actually does none of that, so what's the point? The days of a CO using scouting to provide their youth program are closing. My son's never-ending Confirmation process resembles scouting.
In the last 20 years with 4 different CO's only one took interest and provided a meeting and storage space. That church is now considering forming their own youth group, as none of their youth are members of the troop.
My $0.02 for more rambling,
That was a lot to say in one post. You covered a lot of territory, but you seemed to have forgotten that scout units are owned and operated by Chartered Organizations. You never even mentioned the CO's.
Where are we headed? Down a different path in a different way to a different destination? Will this mean the Aims of Scouting will change or just the Methods or neither? Will the Scout Oath and Law change?
Here are my guesses, random thoughts.
Initially this appeared to be a change in membership restrictions to recapture membership losses?, increase revenue?, to to help family?. to reflect American values?, tto be fair? I don't know, but I am all for taking ALL kids who want to be Scouts. As stated there are no plans to change the program and I suppose in the short term that is true.
Seemingly there are other problems being addressed with new objectives:
Increase Revenue - increase fees across the board. More pressure on Councils to merge and sell/rent properties. STEM was about coed scouting to get into public schools and obtain GRANTS. Public Schools is where the families, facilities, and money are. Will Corporate funding return? If so, it will be quid pro quo, i.e., product donations and corporate partnerships.
Reduce Liabilities - Despite YP, new lawsuits of recent abuses continue. Despite training and GTSS, scout injuries and deaths continue. So spread the responsibility by bringing in parents (Family Scouting) and outsourcing outdoor leadership (hire professional guides, attend National camps) and create safe havens - low adventure, low risk activities.
Regarding Scouting Methods:
Ideals - will it shift from Scout to Family?
Patrol Method - National has marginalized this method to the point of ignoring it. A Troop will be a group of Families, not Patrols. Kids will not join to get away from Mom And Dad; families will join to come together so kids can see Mom and Dad and Mom and Dad can see their kids. Patrols will be temporary groups for activities, maybe patrols will be a group of families?
Family Method - replaces Patrol Method, reduces unit/CO/BSA liability as parents are present. Is it me or does the BSA appears to be teaching parenting? With this comes significant infrastructure improvements to accommodate families. FOS becomes Families of Scouting, just like the Boys' Life changed its name. Will families be the charter organization? I predict more religious groups will drop Scouts and form their own youth groups.
Outdoor Programs - shorter outings to fit schedules, unless it is trek by licensed guides or at a National facility.
Advancement - There is so much that needs fixing here and maybe more involved adults will be a positive force. Are standardized advancement tests coming?
Adult Association - yes, but let's call it what it is - Adult Domination. Will Troop Committee become Conference of Families? Will there be any scout-run troops? Maybe this will force out volunteers with no children ?
Personal Growth - will be more about Family time, respect, needs, and togetherness than Good Turn. I have had numerous over-scheduled families tell me they are tired of community service. I pay taxes which should cover that! I need my son to rake and mow our lawn, in fact bring the whole troop over to clear our yard paint our trim. Helping others includes family! To them, helping the community starts at helping families.
Leadership Method - continues to be a huge selling point and revenue source. All talk though, like those Future ( whatever) of America conferences marketed to high school kids. Will a scout lead even a short walk to mess hall? Wait for two adults Terry.
Uniform Method - this method was added in the mid 80's. I never saw the need as the uniform remains optional. Someone at National will figure out more money can be made by selling expensive tee-shirts/tops, caps, and neckers to families than Class A's and patches to scouts.
I think the Scout program will focus on families coming together, dealing with teen issues (bullying, internet, drugs, now sex too??) and other family needs, and having fun.
Whatever comes will be different, but how will the success be determined and in what time frame? Surely there must be a 5 year strategic plan complete with "pillars", "tiers", "stakeholders", "rubrics", ...
Not all the changes I predict (and I could be totally wrong) are bad in my opinion. As I typed my thoughts, I was reminded in the HUGE change to Wood Badge some years back yet the name remained the same. At least that mistake was not repeated.