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By walk in the woods · Posted
Well, I start with this observation. Since the whole girls in scouting "conversation" started about this time last year, we've been consistently told we don't need to change because we have what families want. If we have what families want, why would the BSA look any different in few years than it does today? @gblotter, I don't see an eminent bankruptcy from the LDS departure, however, membership fees will rise from $33/person to $40/person and unit insurance/recharter fees will rise from $40/unit to $50/unit. That will happen with the recharters this fall so the BSA can bank a little cash while they hope for membership gains in 2019. The loss of FOS contributions will hollow out the intermountain west resulting in camp sales, layoffs, and consolidations. Unfortunately the vortex created by the LDS departure will also damage community units due to loss of critical mass for resources. @gblotter is absolutely correct that the OA will lose the NA trappings and probably the name as it won't make sense across Venturing, Boy Scouting and Sea Scouting. The Ordeal will become a quaint bit of scouting history, as will the free labor and extra dues generated. However, now that the OA has set the precedent for First Class equivalencies, a path to Eagle will be created for Venturing (basically allowing them to work on Star Life and Eagle) and Sea Scouts. Sea Scouts will ignore it but they may get some Venturers to work on Eagle especially if they don't have to join a Troop. Once that boundary is crossed Scouting BSA will quickly become the middle school program (11 - 14 year olds). The fully co-ed option is a foregone conclusion. I doubt it will be mandatory for several years but it will be an option by this time next year at the very latest. Wouldn't surprise me to see the announcement after the fall National Council/Board whatever meeting. The third G fall next year as well. Local option of course but Reverent will become Spiritual or something new age-y like that. @FireStone's description of Creek Stewart succinctly captures the battle for the soul of the BSA. The Cynic in me says Creek hasn't been more fully utilized, a la Bear Grylls, because the BSA leadership has exactly the same thought. Creek's easy outdoor nature and "medicine man vibe" plays well with parents and boys in Peoria, but not so well in NYC or SF or LA or CHI. The LDS departure vortex may spread into the non-urban central parts of the nation before the damage is finished. I'm a survivor of the ISP. Luckily I had a SM who ignored National's direction. Modernized programs, simplified uniforms (don't want to look military), non-traditional badges (have to appeal to all the youth we don't serve) and activities (the outdoors is nice but there's lots of other activities). It's deja vu all over again. But I suspect you're right we'll head down that path again. -
Well...let's see 10 years down the road All packs / troops / units will be coed The uniform will be a suggestion, more just a shirt likely Duty to God and Statement of Declaration of Religious Principle will be greatly amended, watered down, or tossed The current 266 Councils will be consolidated to under 150 A financial reorganization due to the Summit debacle The registration (showing 2,659.439 in 2017 annual report) will be down to around 2,000,000 The number of units (showing 99,814 in 2017 annual report) will be down to around 80,000 Major requirement changes and updates, less emphasis on actual outing and more emphasis on "events" Families and family "events" in the program formerly known as Boy Scouts will be common place More emphasis on STEM and non outdoor items, leading to more dilution of the brand -
I still think it matters today. I'm speaking of 10-15 years down the road. Since inception, it's 2%, but the number annually is up to 6% and climbing. The "since inception" number will stay low for a very long time since that's how percentages work, but the annual numbers are relevant to the living, and when Eagle scout is the chief marketing tool, you'll see that number continue to climb and the requirements to earn it diminish. I want to be proven wrong and in 15 years, I'll return here and see if I am. -
Thanks. That has been a hot debate among training staff around here. -
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